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2302Re: [APBR_analysis] More from Baseball Prospectus . . .

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  • Daniel Dickey
    Jul 4, 2003
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      I was using a scaled replacement level when I was woring on my NBA stuff
      last year. Replacement level for a player that played very little was about
      league average. Replacement level for a player that played ALOT was
      proportionately a bit lower (per minute). If the Knicks had to replace
      Sprewell's minutes for a whole season - they'd expect a lower performance
      per minute in that replacement than if they had to replace Ward's. I liked
      the results a bit better than a straight across the board replacement level.


      >From: "Kevin Pelton" <kpelton08@...>
      >Reply-To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      >Subject: [APBR_analysis] More from Baseball Prospectus . . .
      >Date: Sat, 28 Jun 2003 20:03:14 -0000
      >
      >What I found really fascinating from Baseball Prospectus lately was
      >this article:
      >
      >http://premium.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2032
      >
      >"Redefining Replacement Level". The author, Nate Silver, agrees with
      >our own Dan that replacement level depends on a player's playing
      >time. It's different to replace a guy playing 2000 minutes than one
      >playing 200.
      >
      >The difference? Where Dan thinks we should apply a lower replacement
      >standard because no single player is likely to fill that large of a
      >role and you'd have to stretch to find a couple of scrap-heap types
      >(at least I think that's what your argument is; feel free to jump in
      >here and correct me), Silver thinks it should go up as playing time
      >increases, because time makes it easier to find a replacement - not
      >necessarily a scrap-heap guy, but maybe a player unwanted elsewhere.
      >
      >I'm not really sure how much of a parallel can be drawn between
      >replacement level in the NBA and MLB. The processes for acquiring
      >players are so different. For the most part, the replacement in the
      >NBA is probably going to come from the end of the bench/the injured
      >list, which is the thinking I'm generally basing my concept of
      >replacement player on. At the same time, there are hundreds of
      >players in the NBDL and other minor leagues that are free to anyone.
      >That's a vast difference from baseball, where basically everyone of
      >any talent is under somebody's control.
      >
      >I'm not sure what to think - no tidy conclusion, as Silver notes -
      >but the article certainly made me pause and think when I read it
      >last night.
      >

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