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2273Re: Times Fouled and Possessions

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  • John Hollinger
    Jun 22, 2003
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      I agree with the general sentiment -- if 0.4 vs. 0.44 would only
      change the result between two players are teams with microscopic
      differences.

      Also, in the specific example that brought up this thread, there's a
      couple things missing -- times fouled on 3-pointers, flagrant fouls
      and breakaway fouls -- that would further adjust the coefficient.



      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Dean Oliver" <deano@r...>
      wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, igor eduardo küpfer
      > <igorkupfer@r...> wrote:
      > > <snip>
      > >
      > > The following is a comparison of the two FTA coefficients (.4
      > vs .457), as
      > > shown by the differences between offensive possessions and
      defensive
      > > possessions,by season. The smaller coefficient outperforms the
      > larger
      > > exactly half the time, although with a larger standard error. The
      > difference
      > > is small enough (to me) as to not warrant using the extra decimal
      > places.
      > > What is needed is some empirical data, counting actual
      possessions
      > in a
      > > game, and seeing how close we are.
      >
      > I've got some of these. I'll try to pass them on after I'm done
      > traveling (again).
      >
      > My general comment to Ben when he first passed on his note to me
      was
      > that he may be right that 0.45 works better to account for FT
      > possessions. However, there are minor errors in the rest of the
      > possession formula associated with team ORs and other little things
      > that get lumped into that multiplier on FTA. Or you can get more
      > complex with your possession formula, something BobC has done.
      >
      > I share the sentiment that it doesn't matter too much. Soon, we
      will
      > be able to just count possessions for each team and do the simple
      > division to get pts/poss. Still, the formula estimate will remain
      > useful (in historical work, in individual possession calcs), but
      the
      > difference between 0.4 and 0.45 won't make a huge difference in
      > estimates. Plus, the multiplier changes with rules and enforcement
      > of such. It was lower in the 3-to-make-2 era, for example, and is
      > higher in the 1-and-1 world of college hoops.
      >
      > DeanO
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