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2249Re: [APBR_analysis] (unknown)

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  • Alexander M. Kerr
    Jun 6, 2003
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      Dean,

      Thanks very much for the formula on estimating
      possessions per game and on finding play-by-play info.

      Cheers,

      Alex
      --- Dean Oliver <deano@...> wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com,
      > "oxymonocanthus"
      > <oxymonocanthus@y...> wrote:
      > > Gday all!
      > >
      > > Im trying to build a computer simulation of
      > basketball to help test
      > > the idea of a "hot hand" or being "in a zone."
      > Basically, i hope to
      > > compare the sequence of shots attempted by a
      > player to shots made
      > at
      > > random (conditioning on past stats) to see when
      > indeed a player has
      > a
      > > streak going thats better than random chance. My
      > hypothesis is that
      > > hot streaks are more often wrongly attributed to a
      > player whose
      > play
      > > is not significantly better than their average
      > play.
      > >
      >
      > Gilovich and Tversky and someone else did a full
      > psychological study
      > of the effect years ago. Definitely something you
      > should look into.
      > I've got the reference somewhere.
      >
      > > Does anyone know of a source for these stats?:
      > >
      > > a) Ive seen stats for how many times a player
      > commits a foul. But
      > are
      > > there online records of the number of times that a
      > player was been
      > > fouled by others?
      > >
      >
      > Not really. YOu can get them from online
      > play-by-plays. DeanL is
      > putting together a db with this info.
      >
      > > b) How about number of possessions in a game or
      > season?
      > >
      >
      > Can be statistically estimated from
      >
      > FGA - OR + TO + 0.4*FTA
      >
      > Calculate for the offense and defense, then average.
      > They're almost
      > always within a couple percent of each other. BobC
      > has a different
      > formula, as does John, but they're all pretty
      > comparable. I have a
      > more advanced form.
      >
      > > c) Are there websites that give the order in which
      > a player made
      > his
      > > shots?
      >
      > ? The online play-by-plays -- is that what you're
      > looking for? Look
      > at nba.com.
      >
      > DeanO
      >
      >
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      =====
      Alexander M. Kerr
      Department of Ecology, Evolution, etc.
      University of California
      Santa Barbara CA 93106 USA
      Tel: 1.805.893.2764/737.1602
      Fax: 1.805.893.3777

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