- Jun 3, 2003--- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "oxymonocanthus"
> Gday all!at
> Im trying to build a computer simulation of basketball to help test
> the idea of a "hot hand" or being "in a zone." Basically, i hope to
> compare the sequence of shots attempted by a player to shots made
> random (conditioning on past stats) to see when indeed a player hasa
> streak going thats better than random chance. My hypothesis is thatplay
> hot streaks are more often wrongly attributed to a player whose
> is not significantly better than their average play.Gilovich and Tversky and someone else did a full psychological study
of the effect years ago. Definitely something you should look into.
I've got the reference somewhere.
> Does anyone know of a source for these stats?:are
> a) Ive seen stats for how many times a player commits a foul. But
> there online records of the number of times that a player was beenNot really. YOu can get them from online play-by-plays. DeanL is
> fouled by others?
putting together a db with this info.
> b) How about number of possessions in a game or season?Can be statistically estimated from
FGA - OR + TO + 0.4*FTA
Calculate for the offense and defense, then average. They're almost
always within a couple percent of each other. BobC has a different
formula, as does John, but they're all pretty comparable. I have a
more advanced form.
> c) Are there websites that give the order in which a player madehis
> shots?? The online play-by-plays -- is that what you're looking for? Look
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