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  • Dean Oliver
    Jun 3, 2003
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      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "oxymonocanthus"
      <oxymonocanthus@y...> wrote:
      > Gday all!
      > Im trying to build a computer simulation of basketball to help test
      > the idea of a "hot hand" or being "in a zone." Basically, i hope to
      > compare the sequence of shots attempted by a player to shots made
      > random (conditioning on past stats) to see when indeed a player has
      > streak going thats better than random chance. My hypothesis is that
      > hot streaks are more often wrongly attributed to a player whose
      > is not significantly better than their average play.

      Gilovich and Tversky and someone else did a full psychological study
      of the effect years ago. Definitely something you should look into.
      I've got the reference somewhere.

      > Does anyone know of a source for these stats?:
      > a) Ive seen stats for how many times a player commits a foul. But
      > there online records of the number of times that a player was been
      > fouled by others?

      Not really. YOu can get them from online play-by-plays. DeanL is
      putting together a db with this info.

      > b) How about number of possessions in a game or season?

      Can be statistically estimated from

      FGA - OR + TO + 0.4*FTA

      Calculate for the offense and defense, then average. They're almost
      always within a couple percent of each other. BobC has a different
      formula, as does John, but they're all pretty comparable. I have a
      more advanced form.

      > c) Are there websites that give the order in which a player made
      > shots?

      ? The online play-by-plays -- is that what you're looking for? Look
      at nba.com.

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