198Re: underclassmen and the draft
- Jul 24, 2001--- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
> In particular, people here have come up with several hypotheses for
> 1. simple age (a 24 year old will play better than an 18 year old)
> 2. receiving training (including practice time, perhaps this is
> measured by practice minutes, or number of practices, or months ofsimple age)
> practice -- though that'll be practically identical with using
> 3. minutes (or games, or seasons) of actual playing timeI don't know if there is enough data to do the kinds of studies being
> 4. minutes (or games, or seasons) of non-garbage playing time
proposed. I hope so.
My concept is that you somehow want to control for the quality of
high school prospect you've got. A relative ranking may be all we
can do -- look at the top 100 and their average ranking by the
different services -- and track those guys through college/pros. (An
absolute ranking would be better since there is some sense of
better/worse high school classes.)
What you don't want to do is what we have already done -- match Kobe
Bryant with Shane Battier (maybe that was the other group). Kobe was
considered easily the best player in the nation that year (by my
faulty memory), whereas Battier was an "ordinary" McDonalds
All-American. Basically, Battier would not have been drafted then.
Kobe has few peers, except for Kevin Garnett, by being the only
highly drafted high school kid in his year (am I forgetting
But how does Rashard Lewis compare? Does he have a match who stayed
in college at least a year or two?
What about finding matches for these guys? Do people have old HS
evaluations that we could use as a start for matching up appropriate
Tim Thomas? Jumaine Jones? Steve Francis with Larry Johnson? Dion
Glover? Jonathan Bender? Ron Artest? Elton Brand? Glenn Robinson?
Journal of Basketball Studies
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