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198Re: underclassmen and the draft

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  • Dean Oliver
    Jul 24, 2001
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael K. Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
      >
      >
      > In particular, people here have come up with several hypotheses for
      player
      > development:
      >
      > 1. simple age (a 24 year old will play better than an 18 year old)
      > 2. receiving training (including practice time, perhaps this is
      best
      > measured by practice minutes, or number of practices, or months of
      > practice -- though that'll be practically identical with using
      simple age)
      > 3. minutes (or games, or seasons) of actual playing time
      > 4. minutes (or games, or seasons) of non-garbage playing time
      >

      I don't know if there is enough data to do the kinds of studies being
      proposed. I hope so.

      My concept is that you somehow want to control for the quality of
      high school prospect you've got. A relative ranking may be all we
      can do -- look at the top 100 and their average ranking by the
      different services -- and track those guys through college/pros. (An
      absolute ranking would be better since there is some sense of
      better/worse high school classes.)

      What you don't want to do is what we have already done -- match Kobe
      Bryant with Shane Battier (maybe that was the other group). Kobe was
      considered easily the best player in the nation that year (by my
      faulty memory), whereas Battier was an "ordinary" McDonalds
      All-American. Basically, Battier would not have been drafted then.
      Kobe has few peers, except for Kevin Garnett, by being the only
      highly drafted high school kid in his year (am I forgetting
      someone?).

      But how does Rashard Lewis compare? Does he have a match who stayed
      in college at least a year or two?

      What about finding matches for these guys? Do people have old HS
      evaluations that we could use as a start for matching up appropriate
      guys?

      Tim Thomas? Jumaine Jones? Steve Francis with Larry Johnson? Dion
      Glover? Jonathan Bender? Ron Artest? Elton Brand? Glenn Robinson?
      Rodney Rogers?

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies
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