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1935Re: Hot hand, a little more data

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  • lilnemoinslumber
    Mar 18, 2003
      --- In APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com, "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
      > I said that I thought a better definition of a hot hand was more along the lines of "is >the guy going to score a lot of points in this game, with a good FG% (or offensive >efficiency)"? and offered as an example of hot hand predictability: Nick van Exel vs >the Sonics. He keeps lighting them up.

      The Sonics have George Karl to thank for that. The story goes that when Van Exel was doing a pre-draft work-out that he and Karl bumped heads several times. Ostensibly because Van Exel demeaned Dean Smith's accomplishments, as well as those of his pupils. Karl, took exception and got into several heated exchanges with Van Exel on the matter. Van Exel being unimpressed with Karl, went out of his way to coast through the rest of the work-out often going at half-speed. The Sonics obviously did not come away enamored of Nick. And more than anything else this hurt Van Exel's stock, as his draft position shows.

      > On the other hand, with Payton gone, the Sonics' defense is undoutedly different >from what it had been like the past many years. But somehow van Exel's torment of >the Sonics continues.

      Nick's rookie year against the Sonics he was treated to his first actual matchups with Gary Payton. As we all know, the Glove often pushes rookies to test their mettle. Nick pretty much held his own from what I recall. It seems that Nick blames the Sonics, and Karl for his slip in the draft, and the frequent matchups the Lakers had with the Sonics in the mid-90's always had playoff implications.

      In regards to the hot hand discussion; I believe. NBA players have an extremely high skill set (some more than others), and are capable of unbelievable feats. At times they can turn it on or off as they please (in some cases). And sometimes, well, things just line up and its all just too easy.

      In Nick's case, I think it's animosity. He feels the Sonics wronged him, and he aims to stick it to them for as long as he's in the game. He envisions himself as a gunslinger; an assasin of sorts. And anyone that watched him play the Sonics, would agree that that is a fair assessment.

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