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  • Dean Oliver <deano@rawbw.com>
    Jan 31, 2003
      Y'know, I was wondering why this cross-generational thing has been
      bugging me. I really don't have much interest in simulating old
      teams vs. new teams, but there are elements of doing it -- and
      elements of Mike's study with minutes -- that really get at something
      I am very interested in. It just took a while for it to click in my
      brain what it is.

      Both Mike's study and the cross-generational stuff get at the
      question: What is talent? Or what is a measure of talent? As I've
      mentioned before, we measure performance with stats, not talent.
      Performance is a function of talent, but also a bunch of other
      things, including the average talent level in the league (that Mike
      is getting at), coaching, home/road, etc.

      Though I don't have much time right now, there is a lot we've talked
      about that gets at potentially better evaluating _talent_ in modern
      players, an issue of great value. I will post some of my results on
      the impacts of height when I have time. Height is only a small
      element of talent but it is at least quantifiable, unlike quickness
      or strength or speed to get a shot off or ability to create own shot

      Ultimately being able to say that a player would do x if it weren't
      for his coach/system/role, but does y with his coach/system/role,
      allows for better translation of statistics between teams and between
      leagues, which is important for draft and trade analysis. And we all
      know that those are important.

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