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1709Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Cross Generational Simulating/Comparisons

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    Jan 27, 2003

      the superiority of the average team in the early 80 to its 60s counterpart was on
      the order of 10 to 12 points per game (at a modern game pace).  This is equivalent to how much better the best Bulls team was to the league average.

      not sure what these numbers mean or where they are coming from....how did you arrive at this or derive these numbers?...

      Just looking at the average offensive productivity over the time in question, what one sees is that it improved dramatically (the 12 points per game above).

      would love to "look" at it but you're not showing anything...

      Now, those who believe we stand on the shoulders of giants might be inclined to say that defenses got worse as opposed to offenses having improved.  Is this view tenable?  The answer is "no" because the trend is accompanied by a dramatic slowing of the game.  This slowing, all else equal, implies that offensive productivity should have decreased. .  Why?  It either means fast-break baskets were being reduced or that the half-court offenses were having to work harder for shots.  But offenses improved, dramatically...

      here are some number for you to chew on:

                               pts/      sec/      pts/
      year        FG%   48min   poss     poss
      7778      .469     107.7    13.4      1.000
      7879      .485     109.8    13.5      1.029
      7980      .481     108.5    13.8      1.041   
      8081      .486     107.5    14.0      1.043
      8182      .491     107.9    14.1      1.058
      8283      .485     107.9    13.8      1.037
      8384      .492     109.2    14.0      1.063
      8485      .491     110.2    13.9      1.066
      8586      .487     109.5    13.9      1.059
      8687      .480     109.2    14.1      1.067
      8788      .480     107.6    14.3      1.065
      8889      .477     108.5    14.1      1.062
      8990      .476     106.3    14.4      1.065
      9091      .474     105.5    14.5      1.063
      9192      .472     104.5    14.7      1.067
      9293      .473     104.5    14.7      1.066
      9394      .466     101.0    15.0      1.049
      9495      .466     100.6    15.3      1.069
      9596      .462      98.8     15.5      1.063
      9697      .455      96.2     15.8      1.053
      9798      .450      94.8     15.7      1.036
      9899      .437      90.9     16.0      1.009
      9900      .449      96.9     15.3      1.030
      0001      .443      94.0     15.6      1.020
      0102      .445      94.8     15.7      1.034

      sec/poss is the avg time per team possession, pts/poss is the avg points scored per team possession. you can see a general trend in a slower game thru time (secs/poss) but no such similar trend in offensive productivity...

      as you can see total points scored and game pace have next to nothing to do with offensive productivity per team possession. 1978-79 and 1999-00 have the same pts scored per team possession (1.029 and 1.030) yet vastly different game paces, vastly different FG%s, etc. if you should doubt these pts/poss numbers, DeanO or any other of the stats gurus in this discussion group can verify (or for that fact deny) them....

      since i can't accurately calculate pts/poss prior to 77-78, i can't present similar evidence. but the above clearly shows that over a 24 year time span of the NBA that offensive production per team possession is not directly correlated to game pace (slowing down the game or speeding it up)......

      And the only explanation I can deduce is that offenses were disciplining themselves (through improved coaching I surmise) and expunging bad shot selection.  Now, as
      I also said before, I expect that defenses were also improving during this time so that the 12 point estimate is in fact a low estimate of the actual improvement in these two decades.

      have no idea where this is coming from...

      And to continue.  If one accepts the general and continuous improvement of the game over the two decades mentioned, then it becomes arbitrary to imagine that progress stopped then.  The reasonable prior belief is that the slow decrease in offensive productivity after this point is the result of defensive improvements, rather than some technological retrogression.

      what slow decrease in offensive productivity? i see similar offensive productivity in 77-78 to 80-81 as i see in 97-98 to 01-02, with the higher productivity per poss of the 1980s being higher and fairly constant...

      technological retrogression?? like what, bring back the jump ball after every score??...

      And finally, I made what I think is a very persuasive argument for the superiority of the trained athlete in more recent times.  In the form of a question, if there are not some return to his efforts, why is he killing himself in the gym?

      a nice philosophical arguement but not pertinent for stats analysis..

      There is the "proof".  I look forward to any alternate explanation of these facts and inferences.

      see above...

      All this aside, I should say that I have nothing but the highest regard for the notion of using simulations for analyzing the game of basketball.  To my mind, they are the best method for understanding the effect of marginal changes in game variables.

      However, they are not useful - only highly deceptive - in determining the competitiveness of NBA teams from different eras.

      words from the wise i guess....

      bob chaikin
      bchaikin@...





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