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1687Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: Cross Generational Simulating/Comparisons

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  • bchaikin@aol.com
    Jan 23, 2003
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      Just to make sure -- I was just kidding about killing you off, Bob. 
      I fully respect all your opinions.  I just wouldn't trust any cross-
      generational simulation based on some of the reasons I mentioned
      before.  And I would simply ask to prove that a cross-generational
      simulation works.

      a threat is a threat - and i am prepared. should you ever dare to come thru my front door, my 14 year old cat will, beveled fangs, declawed, and all, in between bringing up frequent furballs and his mental lapses (where's that damn food bowl), will lick you to death - take the skin right off the bone (give or take a few weeks)......

      you have been warned...

      I just wouldn't trust any cross-generational simulation based on some of the reasons I mentioned before.  And I would simply ask to prove that a cross-generational
      simulation works.

      well i guess some people have to be dragged kicking and screaming into the 21st century - so what would constitute proof, or more specifically, what would constitute proof to you? if i can simulate individual select seasons and reproduce accurate results (team W-L records, individual player stats) is that or is that not proof the sim works over the course of one season? if i can then replace, say, a 2000-01 team with a 2001-02 team with an identical real life W-L record (say replace the bulls of 00-01 with the bulls of 01-02), and then play that 2001-02 team in a league with 2000-01 teams and get a similar or identical W-L record, is that enough proof? if i then run that 2001-02 team in a league with the 1999-2000 teams, and get a similar if not identical record, is that enough proof? then a 2001-02 team in a league with 1998-99 teams, get a similar result, is that enough proof? and so on down the line...

      i can do this, and place those results right in front of you (at least for the late 1970s to today, more accurately the 97-98 season), but you can still claim that's not proof. if your answer is that since it can't be done in real life thus there is no way to prove it, then why this discussion?...

      i've been asking for proof or statistical evidence (or any evidence) that the eras are not directly comparable. the gould study was a good start - a statistical study to try to show something. i understand what he was trying to do but do not think he went far enough (at least for the purposes of our discussion here), although his results are promising (showing a difference from the late 1800s to late 1900s, but not the 1940s to 1980). i did not bring up his study, someone else did - i simply tried to evaluate what he did in terms of how it could help our discussion, since a similar study for hoops has not been done (at least that i know of)...

      bob chaikin
      bchaikin@...












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