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1433Re: Playoff overachievers, revisited

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  • Mike G
    Oct 24, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Michael Tamada" <tamada@o...> wrote:
      > The top of the list, in career 'extra' pts + reb + ....
      >
      > 835 Michael Jordan
      > 675 Bill Russell
      > 578 Hakeem Olajuwon
      > 577 Reggie Miller
      > 548 Kareem
      > 545 Isiah Thomas
      > 476 Jerry West
      > 434 John Havlicek
      > 410 Robert Horry
      >
      > [...]
      >
      > Fascinating, good to see that some of our subjective
      judgements are backed by some statistical evidence, i.e. the way
      Reggie always seemed to come through big time, and of course Horry.

      Horry has had only 1 weak playoff, his first year in LA. He
      shot .638 (career best), but not often. Bad coaching?

      Horry's other playoffs are good from day 1, and several have been in
      the Monster class, especially his Rockets title runs. In his first 3
      years, 38% of his 3-pt FG came in the playoffs.

      Horry is kind of unique, in that he is a 2nd-tier player who can
      carry the best teams at the most crucial times.

      Reggie's first couple of playoffs were rather weak, as was 1998.
      Older guys often slip in the clutch, but Reggie rebounded and has had
      several more incredible runs at immortality.

      Did anyone else here see Reggie's multiple last-second feats that
      almost took out the Nets last year? I was hoarse for days.

      > Isiah too for that matter.

      Isiah increased his scoring by almost 2 per game (efficiency
      unscathed), his rebounds by 20%, and his turnovers went down by .5
      per. He also doubled his rate of 3s made.

      After many monster playoffs, his last 2 appearances were weak -- but
      not in rebounding.


      > Jordan, Russell and Hakeem of course almost don't need the stats to
      support their claim to Big Game Greatness.

      OK


      > Kareem, West, and Havlicek, though not surprises per se, were not
      necessarily the people I would first think of.

      Kareem had an outstanding rookie playoff, then 3 'off years' (yes,
      including the '71 title run). Monster years
      were '70, '77, '80, '83, '84, '86, '87. Many excellent years
      accumulate these credits.

      For his career, playoff numbers are down from seasons, but not by the
      5% norm; so his playoff career can be said to be an overachievment.

      Jerry West was Mr. Clutch. He had 6 consecutive outstanding
      playoffs, from '63-69. His worst showing was in 1972, the title
      year, when he ran across Jerry Sloan, Oscar, and Walt Frazier.

      Havlicek, like these others, never had a bad showing, and some
      monster years like '67-69, and notably 1974, when he went nuts. Some
      5 pts over his season average.


      > [...]
      >
      > 3.64 Bob Lanier
      > 3.51 Gus Williams
      > 3.50 Hakeem Olajuwon
      >
      > [...]
      >
      >
      > Surprising to see Bob Lanier this high. Tom Burleson
      actually played him at least even in the 1975 playoffs, which does
      not speak well for Lanier. This was one of the few times that Lanier
      got into the playoffs in his prime. I think the Pistons made the
      playoffs the next year too, and then lapsed back to their usual
      mediocrity.
      I suppose Lanier's playoff statistics might be dominated by his
      late, Milwaukee years, when his regular season production was not
      very high and I guess his playoff production must've been better.

      1975 was only 3 rough games for Lanier, but '76 and '77 were monster
      years (total 12 games). All his playoffs in Milwaukee were strong,
      until his last. He did hand Moses his only loss in the '83 playoffs!


      > Chambers could've been a good 3rd forward on a championship
      team, instant offense off the bench.

      Utah tried him there, same result.

      >
      > -2.12 Detlef Schrempf
      >
      > Schrempf got a reputation (deservedly) for doing poorly in
      the playoffs with the Pacers. Some Sonics fans for that reason
      didn't like the McKey for Schrempf trade. I thought it was a good
      one, and indeed it turned out to be (might've even been good for both
      teams but the Sonics still made out better than the Pacers). I think
      Schrempf in general did okay in the playoffs for the Sonics,

      Det had sucked in Dallas, and then in Indiana. He had one good
      playoff in Seattle, his first. This was relative to his slow first
      season there, and he continued to an allstar season. In '96
      playoffs, he hit his alltime low; I guess I could break guys down
      into their Finals performance, and everything leading up to that.


      > certainly in 1996 he was a key component in their playoff
      victories over Utah and Houston: he overpowered their small forwards
      and was too quick and too good an outside shooter for their power
      forwards to contain. Schrempf more than met his match in the Finals,
      but so did all the Sonics except for Kemp and Payton. Kemp was
      outstanding and Payton played Jordan at least even

      Yeah, we've been there. One of the best teams ever, a huge underdog
      in the Finals. Kemp had shown monster ability in the previous year
      (5 games), rolled thru the '96 run, followed a weak 1997 year with a
      huge postseason, and did likewise his first year in Cleveland.


      Surprising to see Payton appearing on this negative-playoff perfomers
      list.

      His 3 outstanding seasons seem to be '97, '00, and '02. All 3 years
      were followed with more-average playoffs.

      Payton's had only a couple of great playoffs, '96 and '98. His
      first 5 and last 2 have been weak. In particular, his assists seem
      to suffer.


      MikeG
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