## 1368Re: 2002-03 Predictions, anyone?

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• Oct 14, 2002
--- In APBR_analysis@y..., "Dean LaVergne" <deanlav@y...> wrote:
> Please refresh my memory - how are Defensive Stops calculated?

From the article on my website:

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/JordanvsOlaj.html

The nontechnical form of the formula to estimate D stops is

Defensive Stops =
Min*[(OppFGA-OppFGM-OppOR-TMBLK)/2+(OppTO-TMSTL)]/TMMIN
+ STL + 0.5*(DR+BLK)

Basically, the point is to estimate how many misses a player forces,
how many turnovers they force, then augment them with actual stats
like blocks and turnovers. A stop is a change of possession, of
course, and a missed shot or block only does part of that (whereas a
forced turnover does the whole thing). A defensive rebound does the
other part. This formula is, uh, nontechnical because it doesn't
weight things by how difficult they are. On some teams a defensive
rebound deserves more weight than on others (e.g., when the team has
a hard time getting them). It doesn't make a huge difference at the
NBA level.

The big estimate is what is in the square brackets, estimating how
many forced misses and forced TO's a guy has. I've compared it with
our Project D Scoresheet stuff and it's definitely only accurate for
some players. Speaking of that, I really need to finish that work,
but I first gotta get the manuscript in. And work. And go traveling
again. Grr.

DeanO
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