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1355Re: Bob's examples

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  • Dean Oliver
    Oct 12, 2002
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      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
      > Guys who make better passes and help their teammates to higher
      shooting
      > percentages get more credit for their assists than guys who make
      safe passes.
      >
      > do you believe, or have data, or have seen data to show that some
      players do
      > indeed actually increase the FG%s of their teammates thru their
      passing? i
      > had always assumed this was true but did a small study for the Nets
      almost a
      > decade ago showing that while good passers do indeed increase the
      > opportunities for their teammates to score, there was no evidence
      to show
      > that they did in fact increase their FG%s (i.e. did not get them
      better shot
      > selection thru their passing skills)...
      >

      It is a belief, a prior assumption, something that does wait for
      proof. I did a very short study once that suggested that assists do
      not, as a class, increase shooting percentages. Basically, guys got
      easy shots as much on their own as off of passes. It wasn't as
      thorough as I'd like it to have been and, like your study, I have
      doubts about its results. If assists don't increase the odds of
      making a basket, then why should anyone get credit for them?

      So, my answer is that I don't have evidence or proof of it, kinda
      like there is no evidence that batting order makes a difference in
      scoring runs in baseball. But people do definitely construct batting
      orders thinking they matter.

      There are definite old wives tales in sports. Some of them are
      difficult to prove but we hold on to anyway. Some of them can be
      pretty adequately dispelled. An interesting example is the concept
      of great players making their teammates better. I've generally found
      that great players make _some_ teammates better, but not necessarily
      all. Magic, Bird, and Jordan all had definite positive effects on
      some teammates. But there were plenty of players who came through
      that didn't play any better with them.

      Your test for whether certain guys improve their teammates seems like
      a decent one. But there are other tests. Maybe some assist men make
      only occasional players better shooters. That is something to
      consider. But let me think about better tests.

      DeanO

      > what i did was to look at all of the high assist men (PGs with high
      assist
      > totals) that had been traded during their career over a 15-16 year
      period
      > (late 70s to early 90s), and looked at the FG%s of their teammates
      before
      > their arrival and after, and could not find a single PG that
      consistently
      > increased FG% of teammates. there were numerous cases where PGs did
      just that
      > at one stop but not the next, didn't at their 1st stop but did
      their 2nd,
      > etc, but no data to show that any single player or players always
      or most of
      > the time increased their teammates FG%s....
      >
      > what i had found (but i can't find the data now) was - as i
      remember it -
      > that some players (PGs) could increase their teamates scoring avgs
      by getting
      > them more opportunities to score, which makes sense if you think
      about it.
      > great passers like magic and stockton shoot so infrequently and
      pass so often
      > in relation to how often they handle the ball, that since they
      handle the
      > ball so often in the 1st place their teammates get more chances to
      score. i
      > couldn't use magic and stockton in the study because they played
      their entire
      > careers with one team, but i did look at players traded to the
      teams of the
      > great PGs (and possibly traded away) and looked at their FG%s
      before and
      > after. again no consistent pattern as to increases or decreases in
      FG%s....
      >
      > haven't done a similar study to this yet for the 1990s, but i'd
      look at
      > players like cassell, marbury, stoudamire, etc - PGs traded once or
      twice
      > that were starters wherever they went...
      >
      > bob chaikin
      > bchaikin@b...
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