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1353Re: Bob's examples

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  • Dean Oliver
    Oct 11, 2002
      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
      > deano -
      > what does your "Poss" column represent? i'm guessing player
      possessions, but
      > for example the highest number i saw was for barkley (87-88 with
      > which is 21-22 possessions per game or just 5-6 possessions per
      > bob chaikin
      > bchaikin@b...

      A possession is different than a touch. A touch is pretty obvious.
      It's what you estimate. A guy touches the ball a lot more than he
      actually does something that contributes to the end of a team
      possession. A lot of passes are just moving the ball on to the next
      guy - neutral things that I can't afford to really care about.
      Individual possessions track only when a player contributes to the
      end of a team possession, a shot that isn't rebounded by the offense
      or a turnover mainly. I've devised individual possessions so that
      the sum of them add up pretty darn close to the actual number of team
      possessions (minus 5-s calls, 8-s calls, and 24-s calls). That means
      that a team possession where an assist is credited on a made basket --
      part of the possession goes to the assistant and part to the guy who
      made the shot, so that it adds to 1. Guys who make better passes and
      help their teammates to higher shooting percentages get more credit
      for their assists than guys who make safe passes. It's not a huge
      adjustment but it can matter.

      Anyway, your touch count should not add up at all to my individual
      possession count. I don't want every touch to be factored into an
      evaluation of how efficient a player is with the ball. If I counted
      passes that did nothing, that would be a very different stat. Not
      sure what it would mean. I basically try to capture how efficient
      players are WHEN THEY TRY TO DO SOMETHING WITH THE BALL. Then I also
      track how often they try to do something witht he ball. Stackhouse
      and Iverson often try to do something with the ball. They aren't
      very efficient with it. Jordan often tried to do something with the
      ball. And he was damned efficient with it. Brent Barry doesn't
      often try to do something with the ball, but he's very efficient when
      he tries. Dickie Simpkins doesn't often try to do something with the
      ball and he ain't efficient. He's got to be in the league for
      another reason besides offense.

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