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1343Re: [APBR_analysis] predicting W-L record based on team point differential

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  • john wallace craven
    Oct 10, 2002
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      On Thu, 10 Oct 2002, Richard Scott wrote:

      > Have also seen that Bill James pythagorean method applied to the NBA to, to do this. The exponent, of course, is radically different.

      I found that an exponent somewhere around 13 (unfortunately, I don't have
      my notes with me; I'm at school and they're at home) works really well.
      Obviously, it's not perfect; just like baseball, factors other than point
      differential (like luck) impact won-lost records.

      John Craven

      > ----- Original Message -----
      > From: bchaikin@...
      > To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      > Sent: Thursday, October 10, 2002 3:17 AM
      > Subject: [APBR_analysis] predicting W-L record based on team point differential
      >
      >
      > This is pretty radical. Does anyone know what team ppg differential
      > typically produces in terms of W-L record? My guess is 6.3 ppg and
      > 57-25 is closer to normal, like Bob says, than 3.1 ppg and 55-27 is.
      >
      >
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