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1327Re: effeciency per possession versus minutes played, FG%, etc

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  • Mike G
    Oct 9, 2002
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      Bob, good job on the clarification of methods. I see line 1 and line
      2 of the statistics headings are misaligned, and some of the
      categories are actually `effective FG%', `production
      rating', `possession factor', `rebounds/48 min',
      and `points/possession'. Correct me if I didn't get these right.

      Then, I see %shot + %fouled + %turnover + % pass = 100 in every case.

      The Possession Factor then must be guesstimated to create a total
      touches out of the possessions used, and determines those breakdowns
      listed above.


      >i added some more stats to try to make clear each example:

      eff Prod
      Poss reb Pts
      Hawkins mpg ppg fg% To/min FG% Rat Fact %sht %3sht %fld %to %
      pass /48 Poss
      90-91 38.9 22.1 47.2 .068 .515 .471 1.07 38
      8 14 6 42 4.8 .533
      95-96 34.4 15.6 47.3 .058 .554 .387 0.89 37
      15 10 6 47 5.0 .507

      >here for hersey hawkins the turnovers are the same, 6 turnovers per
      >100 ball possessions, so that's not the difference. he did get
      >fouled quite alot more (4%) in 90-91, in fact his FTM in 90-91 was
      >twice that in 95-96. but he shot better in 95-96, so its not
      >shooting (took twice as many 3pters in 95-96 per ball possession
      >than in 90-91). the biggest difference that i can see is he handled
      >the ball about 20% more often per minute in 90-91, and add that to
      >his 5 more min/g is the reason he played better

      Greater FG %, more 3-point attempts, fewer FT attempts: what does it
      all add up to?

      .554 is a lot higher than .515, and 14% is a lot more than 10%.
      However, Hawkins' overall shooting was .579 in '91, and .591 in '96,
      only a small difference. In Charlotte, 1995, he had his career high
      of .611


      eff Prod
      >Poss reb Pts
      >Barkley mpg ppg fg% To/min FG% Rat Fact %sht %3sht %fld %to %
      pass /48 Poss
      95-96 37.1 23.2 50.0 .082 .521 .672 1.25 35
      5 15 7 43 15.0 .502
      96-97 37.9 19.2 48.4 .075 .526 .640 1.30 27
      8 14 6 53 17.1 .389

      >…. he shot just as well, got fouled just as often, and turned the
      >ball over about the same...

      Yep. Barkley's overall shooting was .571 in '96 and .566 in '97, and
      dropped steadily thereafter. His 1997 rebounding rate was the best
      of his career, outside of 1987.


      eff Prod
      >Poss reb Pts
      Pippen mpg ppg fg% To/min FG% Rat Fact %sht %3sht %fld %to %
      pass /48 Poss
      92-93 38.6 18.6 47.3 .079 .482 .513 1.36 31
      2 7 6 56 9.5 .354
      93-94 38.3 22.0 49.1 .084 .515 .594 1.38 34
      5 9 6 51 10.9 .417

      >… i like many others was expecting pippen to improve much more than
      >he did

      '93 was a bad year for Pippen. In '92 he had approached
      superstardom, and struggled the year after. His shooting % was the
      lowest of any year between his rookie season and last season.

      ... the bulls were 57-25 in 92-93 yet only 2 games worse in 93-94 at
      55-27 without jordan. how is this possible? well in 92-93 they
      outscored their opponents by 6.3 pts/g but just 3.1 pts/g in 93-95,
      so their W-L record of 55-27 was probably a few to a number of games
      better than their stats would indicate...

      This is pretty radical. Does anyone know what team ppg differential
      typically produces in terms of W-L record? My guess is 6.3 ppg and
      57-25 is closer to normal, like Bob says, than 3.1 ppg and 55-27 is.


      >Larry Johnson eff Prod
      >Poss reb Pts
      mpg ppg fg% To/min FG% Rat Fact %sht %3sht %fld %
      to %pass /48 Poss
      95-96 40.4 20.5 47.6 .056 .503 .508 1.17 32 5
      13 5 50 10.0 .435
      96-97 34.4 12.8 51.2 .052 .535 .312 0.80 35
      5 11 6 48 7.2 .466

      >…, his shooting even better in 96-97. the biggest difference i can
      >see (other than rebounding) is he handled the ball over 30% less in
      >NY …

      Assists were also way down in the NY system. This surprised me,
      since he replaced Mason, another passing forward.

      Total shooting pct went from .551 to .560.


      Mike G
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