1263Re: Ballhogs - Dominique Wilkins
- Sep 12, 2002--- In APBR_analysis@y..., bchaikin@a... wrote:
> But the #'s are estimated from formulas, though, right? Are you
> saying the formulas are always perfect?
> the simulation i developed would not produce statistical results
> real life numbers if the player attributes were not right on -meaning the
> player possession factor and their player attributes. think aboutit, if i
> don't peg pretty much exactly how often each player handles theball on
> offense, and then what they do when they do get it (either shoot,pass, get
> fouled, or turn it over) and how often, how could the programpossibly
> reproduce past real life numbers with so many players involved?...The same way Stratomatic, etc. reproduce numbers. They don't use a
touch factor. From economics (and other stat sciences), there are
always a lot of different ways to _explain_ past results using all
sorts of models. Dave Berri's estimates of individual wins reproduce
team wins very well. Does that mean his model of individual wins is
right? No. I'm pretty sure that your #'s are ballpark -- they
mostly reflect subjective ideas that we have. But I want to know how
big that ballpark is.
> I know you estimate only 40% of Iverson's touches were shots in2000
> playoffs. Different year than what Stu mentioned and his was onlypossessions for the
> Finals, but I don't imagine things would be horribly different. 9%
> is a lot of difference.
> the database shows iverson shooting 40 times per 100 ball
> 22 games he played in the playoffs. i did not break it down byfinals,
> opening round, etc...Can we break it down for the Finals? Since Stu has directly observed
numbers from the 2001 Finals, that would give a sense for how
accurate it really is in a small sample of games. If you can, do it
for all players in the Finals so that we can compare with Stu's
> I've done it in the past, it's just that that online db is prettydatabase in
> hard to use -- some columns aren't readable and you can't do much
> analysis with because you can't save any of the data.
> how is the database hard to use? you can sort and limit the
> innumerable ways. what can't you read? is your resolution high?The sorting and limiting work fine. My resolution is definitely
high. I cannot read a lot of the columns, primarily in the basic
fields (minutes, fga, etc.). The last number gets cut off
frequently. Because I can't cut and paste, it's hard to put in a
format that I can read the way I want to read it. Sometimes, you
want to see %shoot next to minutes and FGA, but you can't do that. I
understand your desire to keep it all proprietary and that limits cut
and paste and display options, but that also limits usage.
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