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109RE: [APBR_analysis] Re: Cha at Mil, 5/20

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  • deanlav@yahoo.com
    May 24, 2001
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      I get ESPN Classic.  If you'd like I'll try to score some.  Do you have a step-by-step guide as to how to do it?
      Dean L
      -----Original Message-----
      From: Dean Oliver [mailto:deano@...]
      Sent: Thursday, May 24, 2001 1:35 AM
      To: APBR_analysis@yahoogroups.com
      Subject: [APBR_analysis] Re: Cha at Mil, 5/20

      --- In APBR_analysis@y..., harlanzo@y... wrote:
      > I was watching the ESPN classic Phoenix-Boston finals of 76 with a
      > buddy.  We both could not help but notice how weak the defense
      > looked.  Have you scored any of these old games defensively.  I
      > wonder if weaker defense would be reflected in the defensive
      > system? 

      I think I had a defensive epiphany tonight.  "Epiphany" may be
      strong.  I'll fill you in later.  Damn, I'm obsessed.

      WRT old games, I don't get espn classic, so I've never scored an old
      game.  I would love to get hold of a bunch of these tapes and do some
      scoring.  Heck, I'd love to have you guys get hold of them and do the
      scoring because I don't sleep anymore. 

      I do think Bob is right about changing rules.  I doubt the new rules
      will improve the violence of the league.  It will change the game if
      they let it.  It will make it more defensive, at least in the short
      term.  Long term is harder to say.  I would definitely like to see
      them call hard fouls the way they should.  Throw people out much more
      often, as far as I'm concerned.

      Baron Davis is definitely good.  He's playing well and he made big
      strides over his rookie year.  My sense is that the guards are a big
      part of the defense on the Hornet team, an unusual thing.  Davis is
      still raw, but is on his way.  I have him with a win-loss record of
      10.1-3.8.  In his 82 games, his O rtg was higher than his D rtg 48
      times.  Pretty good.  I have his Net Pts/48 minutes as 0.2 or 1.1,
      depending on how you calculate it.

      McKie is a little different.  He, like Iverson, really benefits from
      Coach Brown, who has made this a good defense (I'd support his award
      more than Iverson's or McKie's).  McKie's O rtg has been about 101
      the last 2 years.  His D rtg has been about 98.  His win-loss record
      the last 2 years is 10.1-5.7.  This past year, his O rtg was better
      than his D rtg in 47 of 76 games.  I haven't tracked his playoff #'s,
      but they seem to have been good. 

      Dean Oliver
      Journal of Basketball Studies

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