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1081Re: [APBR_analysis] Re: WNBA talent level rising?

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  • mike harmon
    Jul 7, 2002
      I would suggest that the "talent level" is roughly the
      same but what we are seeing is the affects of full
      time coaching and the stablity of the franchises.
      Reguardless of the level of play, continuity leads to
      a higher level of play. As in college, a fouth year
      starter understands the "system" that the head coach
      has implemented. Lets look to the NBA for examples.
      Phil Jackson, Chuck Daly, Greg Popovich (NBA Champions
      ) along with Don Nelson, Larry Brown, Pat Riley, Jerry
      Sloan, etc. had to have their system in place along
      with the talent.
      As the WNBA gains more stength and stability look for
      the level of play and not talent to continue to
      increase.
      Mike Harmon
      --- HoopStudies <deano@...> wrote:
      > --- In APBR_analysis@y..., "John Maxwell"
      > <John.Maxwell@C...> wrote:
      > > I'm not certain about talent levels increasing (or
      > how you would
      > determine
      > > that -- does increasing offense mean talent is
      > necessarily
      > increasing?), but
      > > the league has only gotten slightly younger over
      > its duration.
      > >
      >
      > This is a fundamental question actually. It has
      > important
      > ramifications for the importance of other things --
      > like coaching,
      > strategy, "chemistry", etc. What is talent? How do
      > we measure
      > talent vs performance? Has offensive talent gone
      > down since
      > the '80's or just offensive performance -- due to
      > better coaching on
      > the defensive end, better defensive talent, etc.
      > There are a bunch
      > of papers on the effect of coaching on winning, but
      > I don't think any
      > of them do it very well. They assume that they can
      > measure talent
      > using something like a Pythagorean relationship and
      > the difference
      > between actuall winning % and the Pythagorean
      > projection is
      > coaching. Blech.
      >
      > > The adjusted league average for years of age has
      > dropped from 27.3
      > in 1997
      > > to 26.7 in 2001. It was actually lower in 2000 at
      > 26.5. By adjusted
      > age I
      > > mean that I weighed age for minutes played so that
      > the 38 year old
      > that
      > > never gets off the bench does not count the same
      > as the 23 year old
      > that
      > > averages 35 minutes per game.
      > >
      > > The "peak age" for female basketball players is
      > 26-29 as it has
      > been shown
      > > to be in other sports, most notably baseball.
      >
      > One of these days, I'll actually do the study for
      > the NBA, but I've
      > always been happy with the assumption of this peak
      > age range for NBA
      > players. I did just see a paper suggesting that
      > women reach their
      > performance peak a little later due to having kids.
      > I did remember a
      > story in SI that looked at female track athletes and
      > present cases
      > where they seemed to get a lot better after having
      > kids.
      >
      > DeanO
      >
      >


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