Recent news provide a perfect illustration of the critical thinking
flaw at the basis of the Talpiot tomb "highly improbable" statistical
argument. The argument goes:
"Of course each of these names is very common, by itself, but it is
highly improbable that they will all appear together".
"Of course each of these bonds has a high risk of defaulting, but it
is highly improbable that they will all default at the same time"
[therefore, dear suckers, we can bundle lots of them together and
rate the bundles AAA].
[For those interested, it seems to be an extension of the syllogistic
"fallacy of exclusive premises" into the realm of probabilistic logic]
[100% bona fide dilettante ... delecto ergo sum!]
Ariel L. Szczupak
AMIS-JLM (Ricercar Ltd.)
POB 4707, Jerusalem, Israel 91406
Phone: +972-2-5619660 Fax: +972-2-5634203