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95% First Year Dropout Myth

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  • loranarcher
    The 95% dropout rate is inaccurate and based on flawed statistics. Rather than 5% of A.A. members remaining at the end of one year a more accurate estimate is
    Message 1 of 5 , Jul 30, 2007
      The 95% dropout rate is inaccurate and based
      on flawed statistics.

      Rather than 5% of A.A. members remaining at
      the end of one year a more accurate estimate
      is that 36% remain attending A.A. at the end
      of one year and 32% are still attending at
      the end of 20 years.

      The 1989 GSO internal memo "Comments on A.A.'s
      Triennial Surveys" Appendix C: the First Year"
      has been widely misquoted as a measure of
      retention or dropouts. It is not a measure
      of retention or dropout, it is a simple
      frequency distribution of individuals by
      months since first came to AA and is limited
      to individuals with 12 or fewer months.

      The limitations of the AA membership surveys
      are well described in the GSO internal memo
      on page 4. A major limitation is the signi-
      ficant under counting of the AA membership
      resulting from the many groups that where
      not surveyed.

      The most recent "A.A. Fact File" that I
      received from GSO shows the estimated A. A.
      membership in the US as 1,168,990 members.

      This is a significant undercount of members.

      Using a national representative survey of the
      US, the NIAAA 1991-1992 National Longitudinal
      Alcohol Epidemiologic Survey (NLAES)I found
      that in 1991-1992 2.4 million individuals
      reported attending an A.A. meeting during
      the last year.

      I have posted a brief summary of my findings
      on A.A. membership on my website Alcohol
      Reports, www.alcoholreports.blogspot.com ,
      as a Data Brief, dated July 29, 2007.

      Loran

      - - - -

      Note from the moderator:

      Loran Archer served in key positions at
      NIAAA after being recruited from the
      position of Director of the California
      Office of Alcoholism. In the later 1980s,
      for example, he was:

      Deputy Director
      National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism
      Alcohol, Drug Abuse, and Mental Health Administration
      U.S. Department of Health and Human Services

      He has now started
      "Bulletin Board - Alcohol Reports" at:

      www.alcoholreports.blogspot.com

      He is also one of the contributors to
      ALOCOHOL REPORTS (an international website
      dedicated to providing current information
      on news, newsletters, reports,publications,
      abstracts of peer-reviewed research articles
      and data briefs concerning alcoholism and
      alcohol-related problems throughout the
      world):
      USA
      -Loran Archer
      -Thomasina Borkman
      -Tom Colhurst
      -Jared Lobdell
      -Albert Pawlowski
      -Don Phillips
      CANADA
      -Tim Stockwell
      FRANCE
      - Philippe Arvers
      SOUTH ASIA
      - Prasantha De Silva
      UNITED KINGDOM
      -Libby Ranzetta
      FETAL ALCOHOL SPECTRUM DISORDERS
      - Peggy Seo Oba
      EMPLOYEE ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS
      - Paul M Roman
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