Real Options has been kicking around the Value-based Software Engineering (academic) community for at least 5 years probably a whole decade.
The book Value Based Software Engineering
contains a couple of papers on the topic. Hakan Erdogmus has been a proponent but the stuff I saw him present in 2007 at OOP in Munich was very much Black-Scholes based.
More recently, I've spent some time with Barry Boehm's group at USC and they were coming to the conclusion that Real Options (Black-Scholes) wasn't very useful - pretty much as Chris and Olav have concluded. I also had a long chat with Hakan at XP 2009 and got the impression that he was also going off the idea. He seemed skeptical of the Real Options revival in the Agile community that Chris, Olav, Julian and others here have been leading.
There are also several highly regarded articles from the early part of the naughties that look at the disillusionment with Real Options in project and portfolio management. Real Options were popular with oil companies for portfolio management of exploration projects but fell out of favor as they were seen to over-value projects or under-value risk in comparison to some more traditional accounting practices for valuing projects based on a NPV of ROI.
--- In firstname.lastname@example.org, Matt Wynne <matt@...> wrote:
> I just stumbled across this article from 2005:
> I've only skimmed it but it looks relevant to you lot.
> Software Quality Coaching
> +44(0)7974 430184