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BELIEF IN BIBLICAL END-TIMES STIFLING CLIMATE CHANGE ACTION IN U.S.: STUDY
By Eric W. Dolan
Wednesday, May 1, 2013
The United States has failed to take action to mitigate climate change
thanks in part to the large number of religious Americans who believe
the world has a set expiration date.
Research by David C. Barker of the University of Pittsburgh and David H.
Bearce of the University of Colorado uncovered that belief in the
biblical end-times was a motivating factor behind resistance to curbing
“[T]he fact that such an overwhelming percentage of Republican citizens
profess a belief in the Second Coming (76 percent in 2006, according to
our sample) suggests that governmental attempts to curb greenhouse
emissions would encounter stiff resistance even if every Democrat in the
country wanted to curb them,” Barker and Bearce wrote in their study,
which will be published in the June issue of Political Science Quarterly.
The study, based on data from the 2007 Cooperative Congressional
Election Study, uncovered that belief in the “Second Coming” of Jesus
reduced the probability of strongly supporting government action on
climate change by 12 percent when controlling for a number of
demographic and cultural factors. When the effects of party affiliation,
political ideology, and media distrust were removed from the analysis,
the belief in the “Second Coming” increased this effect by almost 20
percent. (This suggests there is a significant overlap between those
three variables and belief in the “Second Coming.”)
“[I]t stands to reason that most nonbelievers would support preserving
the Earth for future generations, but that end-times believers would
rationally perceive such efforts to be ultimately futile, and hence
ill-advised,” Barker and Bearce explained.
That very sentiment has been expressed by federal legislators. Rep. John
Shimkus (R-IL) said in 2010 that he opposed action on climate change
because “the Earth will end only when God declares it to be over.” He is
the chairman of the Subcommittee on Environment and the Economy.
Though the two researchers cautioned their study was not intended to
predict future policy outcomes, they said their study suggested it was
unlikely the United States would take action on climate change while so
many Americans, particularly Republicans, believed in the coming end-times.
“That is, because of institutions such as the Electoral College, the
winner-take-all representation mechanism, and the Senate filibuster, as
well as the geographic distribution of partisanship to modern partisan
polarization, minority interests often successfully block majority
preferences,” Barker and Bearce wrote. “Thus, even if the median voter
supports policies designed to slow global warming, legislation to effect
such change could find itself dead on arrival if the median Republican
voter strongly resists public policy environmentalism at least in part
because of end-times beliefs.”
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