** Aurora Watch In Effect **
A string of significant flare free days was broken yesterday when
sunspot region 9934 kicked off an M-class flare. It was accompanied
by a faint full-halo CME. As CME's go it wasn't particilarly strong,
but it does appear to have been directed squarely at us. This, an
aurora watch notice has been issued for tomorrow, when the CME is
expected to arrive. The sunspot number is closing in on 250, which is
the hightest it has been in awhile. However, the SFI is well below
200, which would indicate that while sunspots may be numerous, they
aren't very energetic. Sunspot region 9934 looks like it is the only
one that has any real flare producing potential for the time being.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 249
SFI : 187
A index : 9
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 332.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.5 nPa
IMF : 6.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.3 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region
9934 has the potential of producing M-class flare activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at predominantly
quiet to unsettled levels. A chance for isolated active conditions
exists for the first day of the forecast, due to a CME passage from
the M1 event at 07/0346 UTC.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
07-May-2002 0346Z M1.4