Things have been relatively quiet today. Although they are appoaching
the western limb of the solar disk, sunspot regions 9885 and 9887
remain a threat for flares, and there's at least a remote possibility
for a major flare. There are a couple of coronal holes visible this
evening, but neither is positioned to send any high speed solar wind
gusts our way. Newly emerged sunspot region 9893 looks like it may
have M-class flare producing potential.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 234
SFI : 206
A index : 4
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 397.2 km/sec
Solar wind density : 9.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.9 nPa
IMF : 8.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 5.8 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. A chance
for an isolated major flare exists due to the magnetic complexity seen
in several regions.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet on day one of the
forecast. A slight chance of isolated active conditions exist for days
two and three. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux dropped below
event levels at 05/2140 UTC (max flux 2140 pfu's at 05/1725 UTC) ,
although levels remain elevated at the time of this writing.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
04-Apr-2002 1532Z M6.1
04-Apr-2002 1048Z M1.4