** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The Earth remains inside a persistent high speed solar wind stream
this evening, and skywatchers in the higher latitudes should keep an
eye out for aurora around local midnight. I apparently spoke too soon
in saying that no geomagnetic activity had been caused by the fast
moving solar wind blast. See this link for a picture of aurora taken
in Alaska on the night of 3/31 :
magnetic field of sunspot region 9885 has decayed a bit in the last 24
hours, but it is still a definite threat for at least M-class flares.
Sunspot region 9887 has grown in size, and also has flare-producing
potential. The sunspot number has climbed dramatically in the last few
days, and now stands at in the mid 200's for the first time in a good
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 262
SFI : 206
A index : 12
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 615.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa
IMF : 4.7 nPa
IMF Orientation : 2.7 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 9887 appears
to be a likely source for continued C-class and potential M-class
flare activity. Region 9885 (N13W14) also retains sufficient size and
complexity for potentially significant flare activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for
the next three days. Isolated active periods are possible in local
nighttime sectors during the next 12-24 hours as high speed stream
effects continue to wane. A chance for moderate to high flux levels of
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit exists for the
next three days.
Recent significant solar flare activiry :