as always you host the most fascinating discussions. i have been
sharing your commentary with a number of local friend's and indeed it
has inspired some spirited debate which as you know weather people do
best! thanks again and do suppose we shall get to see how it goes as
the months wear on! just hope NO ONE gets anything close to the
tornado of May 3rd 1999 in Moore OK as seen on TWC"s "Stormweek"
tonight... be well!
--- In methanehydrateclub@y..., pawnfart <no_reply@y...> wrote:
> --- In methanehydrateclub@y..., paul hadfield <paul@p...> wrote:
> > pawnfart said:
> > "(I would also be concerned about tornadic activity in
> > the alley in early May. Conditions are almost the same
> > as 1999. )"
> > very interesting... i say that as a local forecaster
> > named Joe Bauer of WANDTV Central IL during a severe
> > wx special called "Spring Alert" airing last week
> > (3/27) said that "this year was to expected to be weak
> > in the way of activity." he offered no supporting
> > evidence
> This is actually more reasoned than it seems, despite him giving no
> support to his conclusion. What it relies on, clearly, is the El
> Nino call that many meteorologists have made. As demostrated by
> those experts on that last hurricane link who spoke on the NPR show
> (again, highly recommended listening) the best and brightest think
> chaos and El Nino. Both are flat WRONG.
> Historically, when there is El Nino conditions it means low
> AND tornadic activity. So his view is reasoned assuming that there
> is an El Nino based on what the experts, like NOAA, called. But,
> I have posted below in great detail--there will be no El Nino.
> we will instead have is what I call a post flaring event nuetral or
> cold anomalies. What that tends to mean is that instead of the
> equatorial counter current and winds reversing themselves like an
> Nino, the equatorials follow normal EASTWARD tracking and when
> flaring/post El Nino warmed equatorials move in that direction near
> Panama in the E. Pac they then begin to move NW toward the
> coast. These waters heat up then and really enhance the
> jet that moves toward the tornado zone.
> So what you have, if you look at SST anomalies from 1999 and what
> slowly forming now, is a line between cold anomalies in the N.
> Pacific and warm anomalies riding all the way from the E. Pac to
> GOM to the N. Atlantic. That line that divides these two extremes
> runs right through tornado alley.
> Now, during an El Nino, GENERALLY SPEAKING there is flaring
> that enhance cirrus relative to what the sun is doing, or the
> is from the sky down--not what the SSTs patterns provide--or the
> action is from the ocean up. That is true despite the obvious
> SST patterns the define an El Nino, and I am speaking about how El
> Nino impacts US weather patterns. What that tends to do is cause
> more steady rainfall conditions and not jet stream driven powerful
> storms where there are contrasting fronts that have organized along
> SST anomalies . . .
> but since 1999 was a big year around here in
> > Central IL (as well as in the S) with 34 tornadoes
> > reported in this region alone (source:
> > http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ilx/torn.htm), who is to say
> > that he is right? in contrast to your statement
> > regarding similiar conditions and the historical facts
> > associated with 1999 also with the fact that 1998 was
> > a HUGE year with 52 reported in Central IL, i wonder
> > where someone like him gets his info to make such a
> > statement about the outcome when in fact we won't know
> > till the season is over. granted, 2000 and 2001 were
> > fairly quiet however 2001 presented a "late bloomer"
> > on October 24th mauling a large area of Monticello IL
> > and way past the usual season. i'll be following your
> > theory along with our local met's prediction to see
> > who is right or at least closest. so far you've been
> > dead on and it would be funny if our local guy eats
> > his words... just so long as it isn't at the expense
> > of life or property... be well!
> > (that link contains a host of interesting Central IL
> > tornado stats, take note of the pattern-like flow of
> > the numbers.)
> > =====
> > stop by anytime! http://www.pawleewurx.com
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