** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The CME produced by sunspot region 9866 on the 11th is on its way. It
turned out to be a somewhat lopsided, but yet still full-halo CME. It
is probably not squarely Earth-directed, but it could still give us at
least a glancing blow. It is is now estimated to arrive sometime
tomorrow, and high latitude aurora are a possibility. Sunspot region
9866 is continuing its active ways, firing off a strong M5 class flare
today. A new sunspot region that has just rotated over the eastern
limb of the solar disk, region 9871, is getting into the act as well,
producing an M1-class flare yesterday.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 154
SFI : 184
A index : 6
K index : 0
Solar wind speed : 426.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.7 nPa
IMF : 7.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 2.3 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Radio blackouts
reaching the R2 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Low-level M-flares are
possible in Regions 9866 and 9871.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
14-Mar-2002 0150Z M5.0
12-Mar-2002 2313Z M1.5