Sunspot region 786 is approaching the western limb of the solar disk,
but it darn sure isn't going quietly. There have been three M-class
flares within the last 24 hours, the background X-ray flux has risen
rather sharply, and at least one CME is on the way towards Earth.
Look for it to be arriving along about the 15th. G-1 and G-2
geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
hours in response to another CME that was produced by an M-class flare
that happened on thr 9th. Judging from the GOES-12 X-ray plots, it
looks like region 786 is going to continue to be active until it
rotates out of view.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 52
SFI : 96
A index : 32
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 503.8 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 0.6 nPa
IMF : 9.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 9.4 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B7
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been moderate. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G2 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class
activity is possible from Region 786.
Geomagnatic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to minor storm
levels. Isolated active periods are possible on 13 and 14 July. Minor
storm conditions are possible on 15 July associated with today's CME
Recent significant solar flare activity :
12-Jul-2005 2252Z M1.3
12-Jul-2005 1624Z M1.5
12-Jul-2005 1306Z M1.0
09-Jul-2005 2206Z M2.8