** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** S-3 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
On the 13th, sunspot region 759 fired off a powerful M-8 class flare.
That's definitely the strongest flare we've seen in a long time. It
was also a long-duration event, and produced a full-halo CME. That
CME has just arrived here at Earth, setting off a geomagnetic storm.
The solar wind speed is on the high side of 950 km/sec. It's too soon
to tell right now exactly how the geomagnetic field will respond to
the shock wave, and how strong the geomagnetic storm will become. The
active conditions are expected to persist for the next 24 hours. The
proton blast from the flare has swamped the solar wind sensors on the
Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite. Solar wind data is
therefore coming from the Solar and Heliospheric Observer (SOHO)
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 91
SFI : 100
A index : 7
K index : 5
Solar wind speed : 957 km/sec
Solar wind density : 25.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : N/A
IMF : 12.5 nT
IMF Orientation : 7.0 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B6
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G1 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
the S3 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be strong.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S3 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. Region 759 continues to
have a high potential for M-class activity, and slight chance for
further proton-producing flare activity. The current energetic proton
flux is expected to remain elevated through 16 May.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels from 15 through 16 May, with a slight chance of an isolated
period of major storm levels. The flare from Region 759 on 13 May at
1457Z, produced a significant, Earth-directed, coronal mass ejection.
The shock is expected to arrive late on the 15th, and remain
geoeffective through the 16th.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
13-May-2005 1657Z M8.0
12-May-2005 1741Z M1.4
12-May-2005 0733Z M1.6
11-May-2005 1938Z M1.1
11-May-2005 0641Z M1.2
10-May-2005 0523Z M1.3