With sunspot region 720 now gone, having rotated over the western limb
of the solar disk, conditions are calming rapidly. The preceeding few
days wer every interesting, seeing a strong (S-3) solar radiation
storm, a stong (G-3) geomagnetic storm, and aurora seen as far south
as Arizona, in addition to all over Canada and northern Europe. The
strongest flare produced by region 720 was a massive X-7 event, which
was fired off as region 720 was approaching the western limb. It will
be interesting to see of region 720 holds together during its trip
around the back side of the sun and makes another appearance in about
two weeks. Meanwhile, things should be quiet for the next few days.
The solar wind speed is elevated due to a coronal hole solar wind
stream, but no storm conditions are expected for the time being.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 40
SFI : 96
A index : 17
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 567.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa
IMF : 3.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low, with a slight chance for another
M-class flare from Region 720 during the next 12 hours (through
24/1200 UTC). Activity should be very low to low for the remainder of
the forecast period (24/1200 UTC through 26/2359 UTC).
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled with occasional
active periods for the next 3 days (24-26 January).
Recent significant solar flare activity :
23-Jan-2005 0151Z M1.0
21-Jan-2005 1355Z M1.2
21-Jan-2005 1016Z M1.7
20-Jan-2005 0701Z X7.1