** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Conditions are becoming more active. Sunspot region 720 is growing
rapidly, and has already been the source for one M-class flare on the
9th. Additionally, the solar wind speed is above the 700 km/sec mark
as a result of the earth being inside of a coronal hole solar wind
stream. Geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed on and off
over the last few days, and aurora are a possibility in the higher
latitudes. That effect should start diminishing by the 15th. Sunspot
region 720, however, bears watching in the days ahead. It is already
naked eye visible, and the background X-ray flux is rising, albeit
slowly. Stay tuned to see if it continues to grow or does a region
715-like disappearing act.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 58
SFI : 102
A index : 24
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 718.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 3.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.0 nT South
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B1
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class
activity. Region 720 is the most likely source for an M-class flare
due to it continual growth.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated
minor storm levels possible on 13 January. Quiet to active conditions
are expected on 14 January while quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 15 January as the high speed stream diminishes.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
09-Jan-2005 0851Z M2.4