** G-3 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** S-1 Solar Radiation Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The last 48 hours have been amazing, and aurora have been seen and
photographed as far south as NC and OK. The fun started with the
impact of the CME from the M-5 flare that occurred several days ago.
The interplanetary magnetic field swung hard south, at one time
reaching 41 nT South. The result was a G-5 (extreme) geomagnetic
storm, the highest category. That happened on the night of the 7th.
That was followed by another CME shock arrival earlier today, which
touched off a G-4 geomagnetic storm. That event is still happening
now, although it has subsided slightly to the G-3 level. The cause of
all of the action has been a long string of powerful flares created by
sunspot region 696. Region 696 is getting close to the western limb
of the solar disk, but it is not going quietly. Today saw an M-8 and
an X-2 flare. At least one, and maybe both, of those flares fired off
a CME. The CME from the M-8 flare had a definite halo component to
it. It is expected to arrive sometime on the 11th. If you're in an
area with dark skies and good visibility, definitely keep a watch out
for aurora over the next two or three days.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 90
SFI : 127
A index : 91
K index : 7
Solar wind speed : 739.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 4.6 nPa
IMF : 29.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 25.2 nT South
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B7
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been severe. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G4 level occurred. Solar radiation storms reaching
the S1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R3 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be moderate.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G2 level are expected. Solar radiation
storms reaching the S1 level are expected. Radio blackouts reaching
the R2 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Region 696 is
expected to produce M-class flares, and X-class flares are possible.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to major storm
conditions on 10-11 November. A CME shock associated with the M8 flare
observed today should arrive on 11 November. Activity should subside
to quiet to active levels on 12 November.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
10-Nov-2004 0213Z X2.5
09-Nov-2004 1719Z M8.9
08-Nov-2004 1549Z M2.3
07-Nov-2004 1606Z X2.0