Sunspot region 691 has become very active over the last few days,
firing off several strong flares, including a massive X-class flare on
the 30th. The flares were short duration events, which usually don't
do much in the way of CME's. However, analysis of SOHO coronagraph
imagery show that there was some CME activity, and there appeared to
be a halo component to them. They weren't full-halo shots, but we
should get a glancing blow from them, probably starting on the 1st.
The are six sunspot regions visible, and 691 is by far the most
active. However, region 693 might be another source of significant
flares. There is also a small coronal hole that is now in an
earth-pointing position. That could also contribute to unsettled
geomagnetic over the next few days.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 163
SFI : 139
A index : 10
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 425.9 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.7 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.0 nPa
IMF : 5.1 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.8 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B4
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate, with a slight chance for
major flare activity. Region 691 is the main threat for moderate or
higher activity levels, although Region 693 might also contribute.
There is also a slight chance for a proton event from Region 691,
given its favorable location on the disk.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels until sometime around mid-day tomorrow (01 November) when
transient flow from the energetic solar events of 30 October are
expected to arrive at Earth. Active conditions with some periods of
minor storm levels are expected to follow and persist for 24-36 hours.
Conditions are expected to subside to unsettled to active levels on
the third day (03 November).
Recent significant solar flare activity :
31-Oct-2004 0532Z M2.3
31-Oct-2004 0226Z M1.1
30-Oct-2004 1633Z M5.9
30-Oct-2004 1146Z X1.2
30-Oct-2004 0928Z M3.7
30-Oct-2004 0618Z M4.2
30-Oct-2004 0333Z M3.3