Well now, things have ddefinitely gotten more active since my last
report, and there has even been a significant flare! There are now
six small sunspot regions visible. Four of the six are almost right
on the solar equator, which is what you would expect to see during
this time of the sunspot cycle. Sunspot region 687, which has very
recently rotated into view, fired off a nice M2.6 flare earlier today.
Despite being a short-duration event, there was a CME associated with
it. The CME did not, however, appear to be earth-directed. In
addition to the sunspots, there is also a small coronal hole that is
in an earth-pointing position. We might see some mild solar wind
gusts from it on the 22nd or the 23rd. Sunspot regions 687 and 682
have the potential for generating a significant flare.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 129
SFI : 111
A index : 10
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 436.6 km/sec
Solar wind desnity : 5.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.8 nPa
IMF : 6.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.7 nT South
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B2
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels. Region 682
and 687 both have a fair potential for the production of isolated
M-class flare activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
throughout the period.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
20-Oct-2004 1051Z M2.6