The talk was about the way big air patterns move. A high pressure
region moves clockwise, and a low counter. If the storm gets
inbetween a low and a high, it basically gets sucked up between them.
Most of the models, which are junk, were looking at just that kind of
situation too soon. Again, what they were not looking for was the
ELECTRICAL things going on with cloud microphysics, particularly with
a huge storm like this which is a POINT or center organized from a
static field standpoint.
To the west of the hurricane in the EPAC is another hurricane which
is moving NW--Hurricane Javiar. That helps keep the whole region,
electrically, moving NW. But the key player with Ivan is the WGOM.
Why? Because when you have huge voltage transiants coupled from ocean
to ionosphere, it causes water vapor to become unable to form into
ice. And we aren't talking about pure water, but salt water. I have a
friend I have been emailing with for years on climate debate bbs and
she informed me from Orlando that when Frances landfell the air puke
smelled of ocean. That's because the winds lift the saltwater from
the surface and that means that these huge voltages are dealing with
an ion solution that does not form ice with symmetry. See again:
"The effects of electric field on ice crystal growth had been
numerically discussed by Scishcheve and Kusalike6-7. They announced
that the strength of an electric field able to change the ice lattice
from normal ice(Ih) to cubic ice (Ic) should be at least 10 to the
5th kV/m [fair weather voltages are about 10 to the -1 k volts per
meter]. However, the strength of the electric field used in our
experiments was only 1/400 of the 10 to the 5th kV/m [fair weather
voltages would be on order of 1/1,000,000 of these voltages, whereas
w/ tropical storm transiants above the eye, the transiant ratios
would be similar to the experiments]. Thus, the morphological change
of the ice in this study was not caused by the ice lattice change.
Without the electric field, the crystal growth process could be
considered as a process whereby the water molecules are added one by
one to the crystal lattice. This 'adding' process has normally the
same probability in all directions, and leads to the formation of the
symmetric ice crystal [figure omitted]. However, when a high voltage
field is applied, the electric field may cause different molecules in
the DMSO solution[a weak acid--what should be noted is rain water is
slightly acidic from the CO2 and other particles that get dissolved
in the air--with a pH of about 5.6] to exhibit different behaviors.
The polar water molecules/clusters may be torqued and rearranged
under the action of the electric field and forced to joining the
lattice in a special orientation and position.
What I am seeing from the lighting storm link and the patterns is
that the strongest deliniations of point stability is coming from the
WGOM. There are large strike numbers for this time of night and this
has literally vaporized the ULL (upper level low) over Texas and
lifted it north. It did it in a pattern, because, again, in this
capacitive coupling water is a powerful dielectric compared to just
air, and a surface low roils the oceans, causes outgassing like
opening a cold beer, and allows a coupling direct from the ionosphere
without much impedance to that conductive ocean. Static fields form
correspondingly. It looks like the top half of the storm may lose its
connection to the storm over this, and the storm continues to advance
west to the WGOM very steadily. The storm looks like it is going
through an eyewall replacement with this severance, and I wouldn't be
surprised to see a move WNW movement of the storm as this occurs.
There is a ridge to the north that is slowly lifting, yes, but the
whole storm isn't going there. It is going NW at a minimum and
perhaps now is when it turns.
The bottom line is this. The models are flawed right, and while they
are grouping with a Mississippi/Alabama border landfall, my view is
it landfalls central Lousianna and may even track west as far as the
Texas border before running east.
This storm is a low SOx event. Believe it or not, the danger isn't
winds but extreme flooding.
SOx from a volcanic eruption defined a storm like Andrew--where the
SOx, as in the China paper, causes yet more extreme microphysics
assymetries per the China paper.
If it takes a more northern track the models, which are more valid as
it loses its EMF organizing power, have the water in the air and the
low BP essentially stalling over the SE and the word used on TWC
was 'biblical' flooding.
It seems like the mixture of the models and my electrical
observations have been most accurate. So in conclusion, to the left
or west -- probably with the strongest winds hitting N.O., and then
moving very slowly, perhaps stopping, before moving east. The
flooding is going to be outrageous.
I may still be right on Texas, for sure the outer bands will hit it,
but the eye would have to move NW over land to get there . . .