** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The Earth has moved inside of a high-speed solar wind stream coming
from a coronal hole, and the solar wind speed has topped 500 km/sec.
There is a chance for isolated geomagnetic storm conditions in the
higher latitudes, so an aurora watc remains in effect. There are four
sunspot regions visible tonight, although none appear to have the
capability of generating a significant flare. I had thought that the
way the background X-ray flux had spiked a couple of days ago that
things might be on the verge of getting interesting, but it fell back
down almost as fast as it had risen. Sunspot region 621 was likely
the cause of the surge. It looked to have flare-producing potential
when it first appeared, but that's no longer the case. All we got was
three mid-level C-class flares. Expect the high-speed solar wind to
persist for approximately the next 48 hours.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 76
SFI : 90
A index : 19
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 536.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.3 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 4.6 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.4 nT North
GOES-12 Background X-ray Flux level : B-1
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Isolated C-class
flares are possible from Region 621.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active with isolated
minor storm periods possible at high latitudes. Elevated solar wind
speed from a coronal hole will prolong this weak disturbance for much
of the next three days.
Recent significant solar flare activity :