** Aurora Watch In Effect **
We've been seeing on-and-off G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions over the
last few days. There have been a series of weak CME impacts.
Nonething has been strong enough to ring any bells, but there have
been a few aurora sigghtings in northern Canada and Alaska. That
general pattern is expected to continue over the next few days.
Sunspot region 588, the only sunspot region visible, has been
producing C-class and occasional M-class flares, and has been the
source of the CME's. A C-2 event that occurred on the 9th, and fired
off yet another full-halo CME, which should arrive on or about the
12th. Additionally, an M-1 flare has just occurred. There should be
more data on that available Sunday or Monday. There's also a small
coronal hole that is rotating into an Earth-pointing poisition. So,
while we won't likely see any major geomagnetic storm conditions,
expect to see a generally active geomagnetic environment, with
occasional geomagnetic storms popping up, over the next three days.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 20
SFI : 88
A index : 12
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 420.0 km/sec
Solar wind density : 4.8 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.2 nPa
IMF : 5.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.3 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to very low. Isolated C-class
flares are possible from Region 588.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to active. Occasional
active periods are expected on 11 April following today's CME arrival.
Updated LASCO imagery reveal another Earth-directed CME associated
with yesterday's C2 flare at 09/2040Z. A geomagnetic response is
likely on 12 April, but the disturbance should be limited to
occasional active periods. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected on 13 April.
Recent significant solar flare activity
11-Apr-2004 0420Z M1.0