Region 528 has been quiet since the M1.5 flare flare of the 26th,
although it still has an outside chance of producing another M-class
flare. There has been an increase in the solar wind speed over the
last 24 hours, and to be honest, I don't see a good reason why. There
is a small coronal hole that is rotating into an Earth-pointing
position, but we shouldn't see any solar wind effects from that until
the 31st at the earliest. It is possible that while the
aforementioned flare didn't appear to have a CME associated with it,
we could have experienced a transient shock passage from it that
didn't show up on the SOHO coronagraph imagery. At any rate, there
wasn't any noteworthy geomagnetic effect from it. While the exact
cause is still being debated, it is known that the time around the
solstices is usually associated with low geomagnetic activity.
Conversely, the equinoxes are more prone to see higher geomagnetic
activity, and aurora are more likely to be seen then.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 47
SFI : 119
A index : 13
K index : 1
Solar wind speed : 506.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.1 nPa
IMF : 7.3 nT
IMF Orientation : 6.0 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
No space weather storms are expected for the next 24 hours.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. There is a
very slight chance of an isolated low level M-class flare due to the
magnetic complexity of Region 528.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels.
Isolated active conditions may be experienced late on 31 December due
to the onset of a recurrent coronal hole high speed stream.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
26-Dec-2003 1928Z M1.5