** Aurora Watch In Effect **
Things have been pretty active within the last two days. The solar
wind speed has topped the 700 km/sec mark, and G-3 (strong)
geomagnetic storm conditions have been observed within the last 24
hours. Aurora have been spotted in the northern US, Canada, and
Alaska, as can be seen here :
Fom all appearances, it would seem that the Earth has entered the
predicted high speed coronal hole solar wind stream earlier than
expected. The Interplanetary Magnetic Field has held onto a
south-pointing orientation, whih has served to enhance the geomagnetic
actviity. Conditions are favorable for more aurora tonight, so
skywatchers should keep an eye out, especially around local midnight.
Expect the increased level of geomagnetic activity for at least the
next two days. Several small sunspot regions have appeared on solar
disk. Although none look to have any real significant flare generating
potential at the moment, there was an M-class flare on Monday. I
think that flare was from a sunspot region that has since rotated out
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 83
SFI : 106
A index : 45
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 737.7 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.6 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.2 nPa
IMF : 7.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 1.5 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G3 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at active to minor storm
levels for the next two days, then calming to be unsettled to active
by day three. The high speed stream should buffet the magnetosphere
for the majority of the period.
Recent significant solar flare actvity :
16-Sep-2003 2224Z M1.3