If you get a chance to see a visable of Isabel the eye is filled by
slits and the center clouds.
Let's see if this can be described from an EMF standpoint.
Last night, I described a number of factors, including the wake of
Fabian, for a reduced conductivity over oceans where Isabel was
moving. Also there is an over all pattern, a global pattern, that
first caused the storm to blow up and then has reduced the over all
electrical input. The problem is that internally, there is no place
for the negative charges in the ionosphere created or retained over
the convection of the storm to go. That is because the dielectric of
water is about 80 times that of air. With the very high cloud tops
the line distance between cloud and ocean is huge and the
charges "wrong" for a shorting to occur, so the electrical
equallibrium cannot come by strikes, or shorting of direct currrents
down to the surface. The only thing left is a formation of something
like this, where the center of the ionosphere becomes a POSITIVE
point and it is surrounded by a ring of negative voltages which then
couples to the ocean surface! That is why the shape of the slits are
in lines and not circles.
The electrical dynamic of a point POSITIVE ion event is MUCH
different from a point POSITIVE ion event. The comparisions to
Andrew are certain to occur, but there are a number of substantial
differences. Andrew occurred proximate to Mt. Pinatubo's eruption in
the context of extremely high levels of SOx emissions. Those
emissions would have increasd the phase change temperature of cirrus
clouds, much in the winter if where you live it is could you put salt
on your driveway to melt the ice. Andrew may not have had an issue
with crossing a track of a previous tropical storm to impact its
conductivities on the surface, but the SOx issue was huge in its
electrical dynamic, IMHO. This storm, OTOH, had its electrical
burst, and now quite clearly is not in the same context and has come
to a new equillibrium, as a point POSITIVE ion event.
There are several dangers and differences. First, a point positive
event will be less likely to be turned, electrically. That is
significant in that the storm seems to be wobbling. This is nothing
more than the storm now being more subject to ambiant winds. Last
night there was a gap in the HP area to the storms north, and it
jogged slightly north or right and now the HP area or ridge is
rebuilding and there is actually a noticable left or south turn. If
the storm were a point negative event, it would hold its course with
MUCH less influence from upper level winds.
The storm also is looking more like a tipped egg than a circle.
Again, the voltages from a point POSITIVE event differ and the
influence on the cloud behaviors is not as direct. Hence the shape
is less circular. However, the winds are largely maintained and the
eye as larger presents a much larger area that at landfall, in its
present shape, that will cause a damage path. Further, the
electrical dynamic will be more stable at landfall because the same
conductivities are not required at the surface--indeed the lack of
conductivities was the reason this new equallibrium has occurred.
So at least while it is like this, it is very dangerous for the
islands because it could erractically move to them and because once
there the land won't cause as much immediate instability, and there
will be greater wind damage. It should be able to ride out this
period of lacking conductivity and regional electrical conditions so
if it doesn't landfall, it can soon cause a point EMF again.