** Aurora Watch in Effect **
The Earth remains inside of a coronal hole high speed solar wind
stream, and the solar wind speed, while a bit slower than it was late
last week, is still above 600 km/sec. G-3 (strong) geomagnetic storm
conditions have been observed withing the last 24 hours, and an aurora
watch remains in effect. The expectation is for the active conditions
to last for about another 24 hours before beginning to calm down.
Don't be surprised to see G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions on Sunday.
There are several numbered sunspot regions visible this evening, and
the sunspot number has risen accordingly. Of the group, sunspot
region 436 appears to have the best potential for generating a
significant flare, although judging by the background X-ray flux, I
don't expect to see anything major happening for the moment.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 125
SFI : 120
A index : 42
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 615.4 km/sec
Solar wind density : 1.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressurte : 0.8 nPa
IMF : 3.8 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.4 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Geomagnetic
storms reaching the G3 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. Regions
436 and 441 have the potential for C-class flare and a slight chance
for an isolated M-class flare.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to minor storm
levels. Active to minor storm levels are expected on day one as
coronal hole high speed stream effects continue. By day two and day
three high speed stream effects should begin to diminish with
unsettled to active levels expected.
Recent significant solar flare activity :