More SOHO data is coming back online, and most of the extreme UV
images are now available, in addition to the LASCO images.
Unfortunately, some data LASCO data is missing that I really wish I
could see. Sunspot region 397, formerly known as sunspot region 375
on its last trip around, kicked of a nice, long-duration M-class flare
on the 2nd. Long duration events are typically more likely to produce
a CME, and given region 397's current location, if there was a CME
produced, it would likely be Earth-directed. However, without the
SOHO LASCO data from that time period, there's no way to tell for
sure. None of the activity summaries from the 2nd have any mention of
the detection of any radio data that would suggest that a CME was
produced, so perhaps none was. The Earth has just entered a high
speed solar wind stream coming from a coronal hole, and the solar wind
speed is now on the high side of 700. However, there hasn't been
anything significant in the way of geomagnetic activity thusfar. Stay
tuned, though, as that could change over the next day or two. The
background X-ray flux is increasing, so I'd say that more significant
flares are a fair possibility.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 147
SFI : 132
A index : 17
K index : 3
Solar wind speed : 737.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.4 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.1 nPa
IMF : 7.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.9 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate. There is a good chance for
M-class flare activity from Region 397. In addition, the magnetic
structure of Region 400 suggests that it is likely to build shear and
this should lead to frequent subflare activity.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active for the next two
days in response to a favorably positioned coronal hole. There may
also be isolated periods of storm level activity. A gradual decline to
unsettled to active is expected on the third day.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
02-Jul-2003 0728Z M3.0