** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The cause for the high levels of geomagnetic activity over the last
several days, sunspot region 365, has disappeared over the western
limb of the solar disk. With it's departure, the background X-Ray
flux has dropped rather dramatically. However, that's not to say that
there hasn't been any flare activity, because there certainly has.
New sunspot region 375, and region 365 before it's exit, combined to
produce a slew of M-class flares over the last 48 hours, including a
very respectable M-6 class shot. Due to the location of those
sunspots, though, none of the associated CME's were Earth-directed.
Keep an eye on region 375, however. It has already established a
history of being an active region, and will be rotating into an
Earth-pointing positions pretty soon. The rapidly declining X-Ray
flux could be a sign that region 375 is losing its magnetic punch, but
don't take your eye off it just yet. The solar wind speed is well
over the 700 km/sec mark this evening in response to a large,
Earth-pointing coronal hole. G-1 geomagnetic storm conditions have
been observed within the last 24 hours. Folks in the higher latitudes
should keep an eye out for aurora for at least the next couple of days
as the coronal hole effects continue.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 54
SFI : 114
A index : 26
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 762.5 km/sec
Solar wind density : 2.2 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.3 nPa
IMF : 7.4 nT
IMF Orientation : 4.4 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. There is a fair
chance for an M-class flare from Region 375.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly active at mid-latitudes
and active to minor storm at high latitudes. The high speed coronal
hole stream should continue for at least the next three days.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
02-Jun-2003 1733Z M1.8
02-Jun-2003 1317Z M1.0
02-Jun-2003 0837Z M3.9
02-Jun-2003 0022Z M6.5
01-Jun-2003 2105Z M1.0
01-Jun-2003 1652Z M1.4
01-Jun-2003 1250Z M1.0
01-Jun-2003 0711Z M1.0
01-Jun-2003 0306Z M1.4