** G-1 Geomagnetic Storm In Progress **
** Aurora Watch In Effect **
The solar wind speed has stubbornly refused to decrease, and G-1
geomagnetic storm conditions have been oberserved today. The solar
wind speed is holding close to 500 km/sec this evening, although it is
forecasted to decrease tomorrow. Of course, that's what they said
yesterday, too. Forecasting space weather can be like forecasting
terrestrial weather. Sometimes it doesn't do what you think it will.
There was some flare activity today that's worthy of note. Sunspot
region 324 produced a long-duration M-class flare. Long duration
events are usually more likely to produce a CME, although I don't see
much of one associated with this flare on the SOHO coronagraph images.
While the solar wind speed is forecasted to decrease tomorrow, the
respite may be a brief one. More high speed solar wind gusts to
arrive on or about the 7th due to another coronal hole that has
rotated into view.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 148
SFI : 153
A index : 24
K index : 4
Solar wind speed : 480.6 km/sec
Solar wind density : 6.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 2.2 nPa
IMF : 6.7 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.2 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Geomagnetic storms
reaching the G1 level occurred. Radio blackouts reaching the R1 level
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are expected. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be moderate for the next two days,
dropping off to low when Region 324 (S11W40) makes its way off the
Geomagnetic actvity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels
with isolated periods of active conditions during the next 24 hours.
The waning high-speed stream will decrease the geomagnetic field to
quiet levels with isolated periods of unsettled on the second and
Recent significant solar flare activity :
04-Apr-2003 2019Z M2.1