In the meantime it would appear the SOI went strongly positive from
Date Tahiti Darwin Daily** 30 day 90 day
11-Jan-2003 1011.06 1003.85 12.20 -7.38 -6.35
12-Jan-2003 1011.84 1004.30 13.80 -6.29 -6.14
13-Jan-2003 1011.81 1003.35 18.10 -5.53 -5.85
--- In email@example.com
, "David <b1blancer1@e...>"
> The solar wind speed is rising in response to the effects from a
> coronal hole-generated high speed solar wind stream, but so far
> haven't been any geomagnetic effects from it, mainly due to a
> north-pointing Interplanetary Magnetic Field. Stay tuned for at
> the next 24 hours, however, as that could change at any time. I
> expect the level of activity, if any happens, to reach that of 12/27
> when aurora were seen as far south as Arizona. There are several
> good-sized sunspot regions visible, and three of them, 242, 247, and
> 251, have at least M-class flare generating potential. An M-class
> flare was detected on the 9th from sunspot region 251, its second
> significant flare since it appeared over the eastern limb of the
> disk. None of sunspot regions look like they could fire off a major
> flare at this time, but again, that could always change.
> The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
> NOAA sunspot number : 199
> SFI : 185
> A index : 12
> K index : 3
> Solar wind speed : 453.4 km/sec
> Solar wind density : 2.5 protons/cc
> Solar wind pressure : 0.8 nPa
> IMF : 5.8 nT
> IMF Orientation : 3.2 nT North
> Conditions for the last 24 hours :
> No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.
> Forecast for the next 24 hours :
> Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
> blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
> Solar activity forecast :
> Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Isolated M-class
> events are possible from Region 242, 247, and 251.
> Geomagnetic activity forecast :
> The geomagnetic field is expected to remain quiet to unsettled for
> next three days.
> Recent significant solar flare activity :
> 09-Jan-2003 0537Z M1.0