Another HUGE HUGE HUGE bio marker that allowed me to rougly predict,
as you recall, the first storm of the TS this year and the wet
conditions for Florida--using very CRUDE data. This data indicates a
forcing so powerful that other models powered by our most extreme
super computers cannot hang with the predictive ability for it to
work. It is like predicting dew in someone's front lawn--10 years
from now--based on the fact you planted a tree there and underneath
where the tree will grow is where you predict the dew.
The Black Algae is on the WEST coast of Florida. So we have a similar
situtation as last year--just a little further north--so watch how
that difference changes Doran wave patterns compared to last year.
This clearly means that there is less chance of an early W. GOM storm-
-an Allison and more chance of an early E. GOM storm -- which is also
consistant with the fair weather GOC and the dipole conditions from
GOC to GOM from a large scale regional standpoint. Last year that
meant a number of ULL features where the ULL regressed from the GOM
toward and through Texas before rising north, bringing very heavy
rains and severe to Florida during the early TS season.
There is NO QUESTION this is a CURRENT situation. IOW it is impacting
weather/climate right now. The strike activity on Monday over the GOM
and Mississippi delta was some of the strongest I have seen all YEAR!
This causes thermals that pull down surface winds from the north and
bring fronts to Florida. IOW, the upper level infra red values
increase so much that air rises, creates surface lows, and that draws
south cold air masses--which run to Florida this time of year. It
clearly increases the risks of severe weather.
Given warm SSTs in the tropical central Pacific, and the 800 level
CME we had early this week, and an SOI that went POSITIVE for today
(8) from a negative value, bringing induction for cirrus in the
tropical Pacific, it is no wonder such a storm commenced in the GOM.