** Aurora Watch In Effect **
With the big flare-producing sunspot groups now gone over the western
limb of the solar disk, solar activity should quiet down some. That
does not, however, necessarily mean that geomagnetic activity will
quiet down. The geomagnetic storm that started on the 1st lasted
through Sunday night before finally subsiding. Now some coronal hole
effects are coming into play. The Earth is inside of a high-speed
solar wind stream, which should persist for several days. Aurora
displays at the higher latitudes are a possibility for the period.
M-class flares are a possibility from sunspot region 57.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 144
SFI : 142
A index : 8
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 433.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 5.1 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : 1.6 nPa
IMF : 3.9 nT
IMF Orientation : 3.7 nT North
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been minor. Radio blackouts
reaching the R1 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to be mostly low. There is, however, a
chance for an isolated M-class event from Region 57 over the next
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
next 24 hours. An increase to mostly unsettled with some isolated
active periods is expected on the second and third days in response to
a favorably positioned coronal hole.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
05-Aug-2002 2122Z M1.0
04-Aug-2002 0955Z M6.6