Solar activity has picked up quite a bit in the last 24 hours with two
significant flares being produced, the largest of which was a powerful
X-class event. The X-class flare happened about 3 hours ago, and no
real data is available it yet. The most likely source is Sunspot
region 17, which was also the source of the M-class flare. This one
probably caught some folks by surprise. There had been no mention of
anything other than the possibility of an M-class flare. There's no
mention yet of any associated CME's, but more should be known tomorrow
as the SOHO satellite data is analyzed. In the mean time, a coronal
hole has now rotated into an Earth-pointing position. Look for the
solar wind gusts from it to arrive here by the weekend.
The current solar and geomagnetic conditions are :
NOAA sunspot number : 85
SFI : 149
A index : 5
K index : 2
Solar wind speed : 380.1 km/sec
Solar wind density : 3.5 protons/cc
Solar wind pressure : n/a
IMF : 4.0 nT
IMF Orientation : 0.2 nT South
Conditions for the last 24 hours :
Space weather for the past 24 hours has been strong. Radio blackouts
reaching the R3 level occurred.
Forecast for the next 24 hours :
Space weather for the next 24 hours is expected to be minor. Radio
blackouts reaching the R1 level are expected.
Solar activity forecast :
Solar activity is expected to continue at low to moderate levels.
Regions 17 and 19 have potential to produce isolated M-class flares.
Geomagnetic activity forecast :
The geomagnetic field is expected to continue at quiet to unsettled
levels with isolated active periods at high latitudes through day one.
Recent significant solar flare activity :
03-Jul-2002 0210Z X1.0 (estimated)
02-Jul-2002 2031Z M1.5