--- In alternate-history@y..., "Scott Palter" <victoriancow2345@e...>
> Now we are on the same frequency.
> The Caucasus were a myth. Presume the Germans capture the oil
> intact. A pipeline dies of guerilla action. The one rail bridge
> Don north of Rostov is not going to permit enough traffic to have a
> impact on the war, and fuel cars on a railroad are a VERY expensive
> move the stuff.
> To me the key alternative comes in the summer and autumn of 1940.
> that Hitler twigs quickly to the idea that Britain is staying in
the war and
> doesn't buy the British diplomatic fakes of May - August.
> Sea Lion is at best a long shot.
> The key is forcing Italy to take German 'help' early. Send Rome
> panzer corps (2 panzer and one motorized divisions in July of 1940)
> of the following February - May. Send Kesselring's entire air
fleet to the
> Med. Use Student's remnants to quickly take Malta, which was
> undefended in 1940.
> Egypt was barely defended in the summer of 1940. Rommel's corps
> cover and a bit of air resupply can waltz to the Canal. The
> Army follows behind as an occupation force for Egypt and points
> (Sudan) and East (Palestine, Jordan).
> The Brits would put block ships in the Canal and retreat both
> Sinai and up the Nile with the fleet (filled to the brim with Empire
> refugees and military rear area hangers) on pulling back to Aden and
> Mombassa. Two weeks to clear Alexandria of British demolitions and
> the engineering resources to bridge the Canal. Meantime Student
> Italian naval squadron can take Cyprus (equally undefended in
> across the Canal, you repeat Dayan's 100 hour Sinai campaign in the
> direction. Another week gets you Palestine - the Arabs were
> revolt and there were basically 4 1918 type divisions (counting the
> Legion) and 100,000 Jews to hold it.
> A week for resupply through Haifa - the Eastern basin of the Med is
> Axis lake and the Brits would be rushed blowing Haifa up - too many
> refugees, not enough transport, total chaos.
> The useable part of Jordan takes another week - let the Italian
> occupy Aquaba while Rommel takes Amman and the Yarmuk Valley.
> So end of September Rommel's armored car units are fencing with the
> of the British retreat at air base H5 in the desert on the road to
> Now have Rashid Ali's Iraqi revolt break out. Vichy gave transit
> through Syria in the actual 1941 revolt. They would be more likely
> just after the British treachery at Mers El Kabir and Dakar. So
> supported by Student's rump division (a small brigade) and a few
> of Stukas and Ju 52's out of Kirkuk and Mosul. Rommel does a
> living off momentum and captured British supplies and transport
(same as he
> did several times in OTL). Major parts of the British retreat cut
> captured / massacred around Baghdad. The remains retreat down both
> the Gulf Coast with the RN taking out what they can along the way.
> end of October the Brits are penned up at Basra but otherwise out
> and the adjacent Persian oil province. By the end of January the
> cleared the Arabian side of the Gulf to at least the Emirates and
> Oman. Persia, Iraq and Turkey have joined the Axis. The pipelines
> are pumping oil out at Beirut and Haifa which can be taken by
> Trieste or up the Danube.
> Italian East Africa has been linked up to Axis Europe.
> A real Axis push would include Aden, Yemen, the rest of Saudi and
> bit of Congo and British East Africa but that's all optional.
> Also no Balkan campaign so add two or three weeks to Barbarossa.
A lot of Commonwealth units can zip from India to Port Said or
Baghdad-I have the Europa OB for War in the Desert. I think your
premise will work, it just won't be a walkover. The Soviets may have
a Front/army group in the Mid East from the Caucasus(I'll have to dig
out the 'Red Desert' Europa scenario to check where they came
from)...and don't forget Turkey. One plan was not to supply monty
with US tanks but to shift 2 Us divisions around the horn into egypt,
admittably they'd be a tad late...