If you were expecting a cliff hanger, you still could get one, but really it’s Romney and it likely won’t be close. There are a few reasons why I thinkMessage 1 of 1 , Nov 6, 2012View SourceIf you were expecting a cliff hanger, you still could get one, but really it’s Romney and it likely won’t be close.We will delve into those, but we will also look at the voting datapoints provided by pollster Chris Wilson that say an Obama win just isn’t in the cards.He has not been the great unifier he promised to be, and, if Sandy is any indication, the seas have not receded on his watch.I thought Obama promised that if elected he’d put out an executive order telling the seas to recede. He’s put one out on everything else.What the heck is the EPA doing? Shouldn’t that be their first priority to stop the seas from overwhelming us?It would be nice if instead of trying to pass Cap and Trade, Obama would have passed something less ambitious like trying to remediate the higher sea levels for costal communities like New York City.As the editors of National Review write: “Tunnel-improvement projects do not have the sex appeal of a global climate crusade, but they represent a more prudent use of our capital, both political and real.”Four years into Obama’s term and the economy is still terrible. Yes the 3rd quarter was stronger but next quarter won’t be good, nor will the 1st quarter of 2013. There’s a record amount of cash sitting around in fewer assets than ever before. That’s not a good sign. And the Federal Reserve seems panicky too. It’s never good when the Fed says they want to keep interest rates at zero for the next two years.Anything under 100 is considered anemic and we are currently at 72. And pretending that unemployment and underemployment are still not a drag on the economy happens nowhere outside the president’s council of economic advisors.Voters vote their pocket book. And the improvement in economic conditions says more about the blindness of the administration than it does about an economic miracle that will rescue Obama.Because, according pollster Chris Wilson at Wilson Perkins Allen Opinion Research, there is a lot of data from early voting that suggests turnout in 2012 will be much closer to 2010 than to 2008. (Sign up for Wilson's blog here).“Tomorrow night (or more likely Wednesday morning),” writes Wilson in his election update to clients, “someone is going to look pretty bad. It might be the pollsters who have continually insisted on using a 2008 model for their polls. Or it will be pollsters like us and other analysts who have criticized the 2008 model as unrealistic and exaggerating Obama’s advantage.”Wilson goes on to look at early voting in Ohio, Colorado, Iowa and Nevada, awarding each to Romney because early voting numbers tend to confirm that Obama’s not reaching the critical mass that generates turnout that he needs for a win.Now, for the very impatient, here are some hints in the latest early voting data distributed today by the AP:o That’s a four point swing toward Republicans; but not enough to erase Obama’s 2008 advantage without some big shifts among Independents.o And, recent polling has shown Obama leading Independents by just two points when he won them by ten in 2008, according to the exit polls.In Iowa, Republicans have an 11 point gap in early votes so far, which compares to an 18 point gap in 2008.o Obama won Iowa in ’08 by more than nine points, so there will have to be an even bigger shift in Election Day votes to change the outcome.Ohio is notoriously hard to judge for early voting because the only “party registration” is based on the last primary in which a voter cast a ballot.o But, based just on that measure and absentee/early ballot requests, Republicans have shaved a 14 point 2008 gap down to a six point gap (an eight point gain) in a state Obama won by less than five points in ‘08.o In 2008, they trailed in the two major counties (which made up 88% of the early votes cast) by 19 points.o Even accounting for the fact that the rural counties are more Republican, that’s a significant closing in a race Obama won by slightly under 13 points in 2008 and makes Nevada a very close race even assuming Independents don’t shift.*But Romney leads among Independents by seven points in the latest Las Vegas Review Journal poll (Obama won Independents by 13 according to the 2008 exit polls).By Wilson’s estimate that leaves Romney at 268 electoral votes, just 2 shy of the 270 needed to win the presidency without considering states where early voting data isn’t a available such as “Virginia (Obama at 48% in RCP average), New Hampshire (Obama at 49% in RCP average), and perhaps even a Pennsylvania (Obama at 50% in RCP average), Wisconsin (Obama at 50% in RCP average) or even Oregon (Obama at 50% in RCP average). All those RCP (Real Clear Politics) averages are based on polls relying on 2008 models.”Wilson gets paid to do this for a living. True he’s a Republican pollster, but in order to make a living at it, he needs to be right. A lot. And he is. A lot.In 2008, Obama won the national vote total by 8 million votes. In simple terms, if 4 million and 1 votes had voted the other way, Obama wouldn’t have been elected. Obama took the field in 2008 because voter intensity amongst Democrats was higher than for Republicans.Ask yourself this: After four years of Obamanomics, are four million voters sorry they have voted for Obama?John Ransom is the Finance Editor for Townhall Finance. You can follow him on twitter @bamransom and on Facebook: bamransom.With the troubling devastation of Hurricane Sandy on our nation's doorstep -- and so many people in need of food, shelter and emergency services after the storm -- I encourage Americans to reach out to our neighbors and help them through this challenging time.Sometimes it feels as if America is living through an Armageddon movie. We struggle with a destabilized economy, soaring national debt, an overburdened entitlement system, looming tax hikes, widespread unemployment, class warfare, ongoing wars, the threats of global terror and a nuclear Iran, and internal division and scandals, from "Fast and Furious" to the massacre in Benghazi, Libya. The list goes on and on.Meanwhile, during this pivotal election season, politicians and lawmakers launch fiery attacks at one another, and several Twitter users threaten to riot if their candidate doesn't win the election this week.Americans are struggling to find jobs, deeply concerned about the economy, troubled by the soaring federal deficit and frustrated with leaders who don't represent their interests in a nation torn apart by divisive politics. Many believe that our country is headed in the wrong direction and worry that their children's lives won't be so good as their own.America is a country born of hardship, struggle and protest. It's a nation of people who share powerful ideas and a place where each of us is blessed with the opportunity to succeed on our merits, ambition, ingenuity and hard work.We can express our opinions and ideas without facing persecution by our government, play a powerful role in policymaking and embrace our entrepreneurial spirit in pursuit of life, liberty and happiness.We have come to a national crossroads. We can choose to embrace immorality, apathy, unmitigated greed, corruption, idleness, entitlement, incessant spending and divisive rhetoric. Or we can put our unique freedoms to good use, elect authentic leaders who serve our great nation, unite to emerge from our hardships, help our neighbors through adversity and treat one another with civility.In less than 200 years, America grew from a cluster of colonies to the greatest nation on earth. Our hardships have been etched into our national soul -- the American Revolution, the Civil War, the Great Depression, Pearl Harbor, Sept. 11 and many others. We've survived our great struggles and emerged a stronger nation. We always have conquered adversity, even against insurmountable odds. This time is no different.In the midst of this national turmoil, let's take a moment to reflect on who we are and what we stand for.One of America's great strengths is its ability to unite under a common goal and emerge from adversity together through hard work, determination and a spirit of brotherhood.In the midst of all our troubles, America is suffering from a leadership crisis. We need our leaders to believe in American exceptionalism, to establish a core set of values and to stand by them.We need leaders who understand that government is built by the people and for the people. America doesn't need leaders who are corrupt and seek office for personal gain.Let's choose leaders who uphold the Constitution and who have the honesty and moral character to make decisions with full consideration for the greater good of the people and the future of America -- and let's unite behind them.I encourage our next president -- whoever he may be -- as well as members of Congress and other leaders, to look inside themselves and ask: What can I do to serve this great nation and make it a better place by the time I leave office?With strength of character, moral courage and the spirit of unity, we can emerge from this turbulent time and work to solve the complex problems our nation is facing.Mitt Romney was very wise to pivot on Barack Obama's impromptu statement that "voting is the best revenge" and frame the campaign in the final days as a choice between that negative message and Romney's "love of country."I wouldn't say that if I thought Obama's statement was merely a slip of the tongue. Rather, I believe that in another unscripted moment, he once again revealed who he really is and the essence of his mindset.When his soul mate and spouse said that her husband's ascendancy was the first time she'd been proud of America in her adult life, she wasn't just throwing out words. She was telling us who she is and what kind of hang-ups she has about pre-Obama America.At the time she made the statement, she was on the stump representing her husband and speaking for him. They are of one mind on this point.It is also no coincidence that Obama spent all those years at the feet of the America-hating Rev. Jeremiah Wright and, before that, mentors such as the Marxist Franklin Marshall Davis. Wright's sermons inspired Obama's book title, for heaven's sake, and informed his political attitudes and reinforced his worldview.Without revisiting all the evidence pointing to Obama's grudge against pre-Obama America, we only need remind ourselves of his pre-election comment that we were "five days away from fundamentally transforming the United States of America."That was a chilling statement and unmistakable in its meaning. Obama didn't like the America that currently existed, and he had ambitions not just to tweak it or implement a few salutary reforms but to fundamentally change it. He wasn't just talking about getting the economy growing again after the financial meltdown. He was determined to implement structural changes across the board to exact "economic justice" and "social justice" -- a pair of familiar lyrics from every leftist radical's hymnal.It would be one thing if Obama had made that statement during slavery or before the 13th, 14th and 15th amendments or even before the vast array of civil rights legislation and regulation in this country. But he made it in 2008, after all those constitutional and legislative changes had long since occurred and a few days before a clear majority of voting Americans elected him to be president of the United States.In office, Obama has also betrayed his grudge-oriented mindset. He never really sought true bipartisanship. From day one, it was his way or the highway. Nowhere was this more striking than his dictatorial approach to Obamacare, which he willingly crammed down the throats of a dissenting American public. He was not a man who was leading America toward positive change but one who was forcibly imposing his radical will on America and completely unwilling to budge when challenged. "I'm the president."Let's also not forget that during his first two years in office at least, Obama did get his way legislatively. He passed his enormously wasteful stimulus bill, the Dodd-Frank financial reform fiasco and Obamacare, and he pushed through all kinds of green energy projects, attacked and greatly damaged the oil, coal and natural gas industries, expanded dependency programs, stoked racial and class resentments, downscaled our military forces, and otherwise spent federal dollars as if he were determined to bankrupt the United States.After all of this, he has nothing positive to show in his record. The economy is still in shambles with no end in sight. Yet he has given us no specifics of what he'd do in a second term except more of the same. In his words, "let's not turn back now." Really? Not turn back from policies that are destroying our economy and bankrupting us?Economic results are not what he's after, folks. He wants revenge -- against an America he believes has been unfair and sinful in the past, a nation that has consumed too much of the world's resources and been an international bully. And he's now outright admitted he wants his voters to help him get that revenge.Mitt Romney, on the other hand, is bullish on America. He's proud of its founding and its founding principles. He loves and embraces its free market tradition. He is confident in the private sector and believes that the road to economic recovery lies in unleashing the private sector from the oppressive boot of the federal government. He wants America to be strong again.It was brilliant for Romney to reframe this campaign as between one man marshaling his forces to exact revenge on America and the other leading his supporters to restore our beloved America.There is no question which of the two candidates presented the more convincing final argument. Romney is offering a positive future; Obama is assuring us continued failure. Vote -- and pray.David Limbaugh, brother of radio talk-show host Rush Limbaugh, is an expert in law and politics and author of new book Crimes Against Liberty, the definitive chronicle of Barack Obama's devastating term in office so far.